16645 Port Arthur Pl · New Fairview, TX 76247

$318,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,129 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,998 sqft lot $150/sqft · at area comps Est $327k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top and are anchored by a spacious game room, providing versatile space for entertainment, work, or play. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction and America’s Smart Home Technology®. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

Key facts

• 5,998 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 1498 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,198 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,490
• List price: $318,990
• Delta: -2.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16620 Port Arthur Pl	0.07mi	5/3.0	2,129 (0%)	1mo	$313,990	$147	96
16628 Port Arthur Pl	0.05mi	5/2.5	2,236 (+5%)	1mo	$319,990	$143	87
16577 Port Arthur Pl	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (-4%)	1mo	$346,990	$170	80
16561 Port Arthur Pl	0.20mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,044 (-4%)	1mo	$337,990	$165	78
16573 Hudson Prairie Way	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	0mo	$346,990	$170	76
16557 Port Arthur Pl	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,038 (-4%)	1mo	$339,990	$167	73
16524 Laguna Vista St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,034 (-4%)	1mo	$349,990	$172	69
16624 Port Arthur Pl	0.06mi	5/2.0	1,812 (-15%)	1mo	$303,990	$168	68
16449 Hudson Prairie Way	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-5%)	0mo	$336,990	$166	65
16608 Laguna Vista St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,827 (-14%)	0mo	$332,630	$182	56
16516 Laguna St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,834 (-14%)	0mo	$331,990	$181	54
16645 Geskey Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,818 (-15%)	0mo	$315,000	$173	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-68,091
• Equity at exit: $47,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-100,407
• Equity at exit: $27,580

Cash invested: $89,317 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76247

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 1498
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$399 /mo · $4,785/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,844

Max offer price $299,368

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,748
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16616 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1659	$2,395	$1.44	1d	1	0.08mi
16608 Port Arthur Pl Northlake, TX	5.0	3.0	2339	$2,600	$1.11	10d	1	0.10mi
229 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	4.0	2.0	1648	$2,300	$1.40	21d	1	0.47mi
233 Cal Ford Dr Northlake, TX	5.0	2.0	1883	$2,340	$1.24	43d	1	0.47mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	11d	1	0.61mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	43d	1	0.68mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	43d	1	0.72mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	2d	1	0.86mi
16721 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	5.0	3.0	2770	$2,800	$1.01	43d	1	0.90mi
820 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2766	$2,700	$0.98	43d	1	1.17mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	12d	1	1.30mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	43d	1	1.40mi
845 Ranchland Rd Justin, TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$3,400	$1.27	24d	1	1.42mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.43mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	12d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1794-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1794 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top and are anchored by a spacious game room, providing versatile space for entertainment, work, or play. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction and America’s Smart Home Technology®. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $318,990 1794-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1794 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top and are anchored by a spacious game room, providing versatile space for entertainment, work, or play. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction and America’s Smart Home Technology®. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

3. 2026-04-14
   price $313,990 1794-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1794 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top and are anchored by a spacious game room, providing versatile space for entertainment, work, or play. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction and America’s Smart Home Technology®. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $309,990 Active 1794-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1794 chars)

   D.R. Horton America's Builder since 2002 is excited to serve as your new home builder in Lonestar at Liberty Trails, a fabulous unique master planned community in Justin and Northwest ISD! The two-story Dawson Floorplan, Elevation A, with an estimated Summer completion, offers 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, an upstairs game room, and a 2-car garage, providing a thoughtfully designed layout ideal for modern living. The open-concept first floor features a welcoming family room that flows seamlessly into the dining area and contemporary kitchen, creating a functional space for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, 36” upper cabinets with hardware, stainless steel appliances, a gas range, stainless steel sink, center island, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. A first-floor secondary bedroom and full bathroom offer flexibility for guests or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite includes an en-suite bath with a dual quartz vanity, 5-foot oversized shower, and walk-in closet. Three additional secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom with a quartz vanity top and are anchored by a spacious game room, providing versatile space for entertainment, work, or play. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends through the main living areas and wet zones for durability and easy maintenance. Additional features include energy-efficient construction and America’s Smart Home Technology®. Future Community Amenities to include: Club House, Dog Park, Fishing Pond, Pickleball, Playground, Pool, Splash Pad, Walking-Nature Trails and Sand Volleyball. Situated conveniently near Highway 114 and Highway 287, Lonestar at Liberty Trails provides access to key roads, making it ideal for commuting and exploring the surrounding areas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,868
• − Property taxes: −$4,785
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$7,098
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,704
• After-tax cash flow: $76/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's value
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can increase the home's value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to high-end appliances can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Upgrading to modern fixtures can increase the home's value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,726
• Household income: $124,383
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 91.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.16%
• Current HPI: 274.368
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.46%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $318,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $313,990 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $309,990 NTREIS