45 Scarborough Pl · Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ 08757

$225,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1974 5,227 sqft lot Est $311k · 28% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Yellowstone model with 1.5 baths! 1/2 bath off of master bedroom. Kitchen with nice ceramic tile. Some upgrades over the last few years. A little TLC and you have a great home or investment property. Newer front door and six panel interior doors. Direct access to garage from inside home.

Key facts

• Direct entry garage
• Mature landscaping
• Tranquil views

Tags

• DIRECT ENTRY GARAGE
• GAS HOT WATER BASEBOARD HEAT
• CENTRAL AIR
• SUPPLEMENTAL A/C UNIT
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• TRANQUIL VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Holiday City Berkeley); Monthly HOA fee of $50; HOA covers common area, lawn maintenance, pool, and snow removal; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, bocce, and common areas with controlled access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Yellowstone; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Stove hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Blinds/shades; Light fixtures; Awnings; Garage door opener
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.2% in Holiday City-Berkeley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Central Regional School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #357 of 472 in NJ (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Regional Middle School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #279 of 431 statewide, top 66%, 716 students, 37% FRL); Central Regional High School (math 15% / reading 39%, grade F, #312 of 399 statewide, top 79%, 1,606 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 509 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,510/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) (locally 1010% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $113k; list at $225k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.11%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,348
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
62 Scarborough Pl	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	2mo	$265,000	$236	95
1 Miles Pond Rd	0.23mi	2/1.0	1,105 (-2%)	2mo	$164,000	$148	85
1 Hampshire Rd	0.30mi	2/1.0	1,121 (-0%)	2mo	$315,000	$281	84
25 Saint Martin Pl	0.25mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-3%)	1mo	$275,000	$252	83
324 Saint Thomas Dr	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	0mo	$339,000	$302	81
37 Carlisle Rd	0.36mi	2/1.5	1,121 (-0%)	1mo	$310,000	$277	80
495 Jamaica Blvd	0.33mi	2/1.0	1,092 (-3%)	0mo	$325,000	$298	80
61 Falmouth St	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,124 (0%)	1mo	$380,000	$338	76
9 Carlisle Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,059 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$208	75
5 Martinique Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,124 (0%)	0mo	$324,888	$289	75
3 Montego St	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$254,500	$207	63
76 Troumaka St	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+10%)	1mo	$286,000	$232	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,305
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $26,973
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08757

• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,800/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $553	-5% $489	+0% $426	+5% $362	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $227	-5% $327	+0% $426	+5% $525	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $539	-0.5pp $483	base $426	+0.5pp $367	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
510 Jamaica Blvd Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,500	$1.98	0d	1	0.34mi
159 Fort de France Ave Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,475	$1.72	8d	1	0.54mi
59 Guadeloupe Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1126	$2,300	$2.04	0d	1	0.66mi
10 Purnell St Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,300	$1.87	0d	1	0.85mi
2 York St Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.5	1105	$2,200	$1.99	0d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $225,000 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,800 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,201 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,401/yr (+$117/mo · 50.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,117
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,800
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,409
• − Management: −$2,409
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$390
• After-tax cash flow: $4,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3402910
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,676
• Composite: 25.59/100
• National rank: #7422
• State rank: #357 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Holiday City-Berkeley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday City-Berkeley, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 35,652
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 36,087
• Household income: $58,319
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1010.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -429.32%
• Current HPI: 305.1341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+165.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2014-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-05 Sold (MLS) $113,000 MOMLS
• 2013-10-12 Listed $114,900 MOMLS
• 2012-03-25 Listed $115,000 MOMLS
• 2008-12-18 Listed $134,900 MOMLS
• 1996-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1996-06-17 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MOMLS
• 1996-06-07 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1996-04-21 Listed $84,900 MOMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,800 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.