7809 Capitol St · Houston, TX 77012

$84,497

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,116 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1940 5,000 sqft lot $76/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 86 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $84k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $84k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $584 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,427 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.05%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,454
• List price: $84,497
• Delta: -60.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7815 Dayton St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,012 (-9%)	8mo	$144,900	$143	71
7637 Avenue C	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,077 (-4%)	17mo	$237,000	$220	63
122 Bedford St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-4%)	18mo	$250,000	$235	61
7559 Erath St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,035 (-7%)	2mo	$255,000	$246	55
7615 Avenue F	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	993 (-11%)	2mo	$179,999	$181	50
7567 Satsuma St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,050 (-6%)	13mo	$175,000	$167	47
7349 Walker St	0.63mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,089 (-2%)	17mo	$239,900	$220	47
1836 Matamoras St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,035 (-7%)	8mo	$219,000	$212	41
7323 Dallas St	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (+12%)	1mo	$110,000	$88	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.08% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $4,850
• Equity at exit: $16,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $27,138
• Equity at exit: $13,455

Cash invested: $23,659 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77012

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,262 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$443
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,373/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $84,497

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,124
• Closing costs: $2,535
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7520 Avenue C Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	745	$1,313	$1.76	44d	31	0.45mi
7530 Canal St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$988	$1.20	13d	2	0.53mi
7530 Canal St Unit 12 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,025	$1.24	4d	1	0.53mi
7530 Canal St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$938	$1.14	18d	2	0.53mi
7310 Sherman St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,499	$1.71	2d	7	0.63mi
7250 Avenue C Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,680	$1.90	1d	14	0.76mi
217 N 72nd St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,525	$1.50	44d	1	0.84mi
7132 Lawndale St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,296	$1.79	2d	7	0.94mi
812 Maltby St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	860	$600	$0.70	44d	1	1.11mi
7043 Avenue L Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	999	$1,845	$1.85	44d	1	1.16mi
916 Redwood St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1209	$1,140	$0.94	24d	1	1.18mi
916 Redwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$985	$1.01	22d	1	1.18mi
916 Redwood St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$985	$1.01	44d	1	1.18mi
1016 S Wayside Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1021	$1,425	$1.40	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,497 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,497 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,497 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,497 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $84,497 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $94,497 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $94,497 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $94,497 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $94,497 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $94,497 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $94,497 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    price $104,497 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

13. 2026-04-30
    price $109,497 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

14. 2026-04-23
    status Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

15. 2025-12-08
    status Pending 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

16. 2025-11-28
    price $119,497 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

17. 2025-11-14
    price $139,000 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

18. 2025-11-07
    listed $149,497 Active 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    Fixer upper 3/1 in a prime location close to downtown, UH, Med center etc. Investor special with development all around

19. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,373 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,373 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,733
• − Property taxes: −$3,373
• − Insurance: −$422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,211
• − Management: −$1,211
• − Depreciation: −$2,458
• Taxable income: $1,734
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,434/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• City population: 3,226,434
• Population (ZIP): 16,780

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 92% Two or more races 35% Black 5% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.08%
• Current HPI: 274.5729
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-30.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $104,497 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $109,497 HARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $119,497 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $149,497 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,373 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.