1215 S Pecan St · Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1950 5,749 sqft lot $105/sqft · 32% below area Est $250k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms home offers endless possibilities whether you're searching for your next investment property or a place to create lasting family memories. Featuring a functional layout, comfortable living space, and plenty of potential to make it your own, this property is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• 5,749 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other roof material
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Paved road access; Solar panels

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wet bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett Middle (math 30% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 635 students, 77% FRL); Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 65% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.25%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,317
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -32.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $57,868
• Equity at exit: $40,311

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.26×
• Total profit: $155,387
• Equity at exit: $41,714

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79772

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,551/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $1,120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,382

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Mimosa St Pecos, TX	3.0	2.0	2206	$2,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $170,000 Active 309-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,551 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,560/yr (+$130/mo · 100.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,551
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $11,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $10,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834550
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,982
• Composite: 24.61/100
• National rank: #7632
• State rank: #652 of 826 in TX

Livability — Town of Pecos

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Town of Pecos, TX
• City population: 12,547
• Population (ZIP): 12,547

Population outlook (Reeves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,069 people
• By 2030: 18,407 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 21,342 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 24,701 · +44.7%
• By 2075: 32,688 · +91.5%
• By 2100: 36,117 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 22% White 12% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 38% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Reeves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.9) · D 31.1% · R 68.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 5.2pp · 2024: -36.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.9 2020: R+23.3 2016: D+7.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 147.9377
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $170,000 ODMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,551 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.