18717 Mill Villa Rd. #424 #424 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $95k · 32% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enchanting and private, this beautifully maintained home is tucked away at the end of the road in the desirable Mill Villa Estates 55+ community. Offering 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 960 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this home provides the perfect balance of comfort and functionality. The light-filled living room features vaulted ceilings and flows seamlessly into the dining area, creating an open and welcoming feel. The galley-style kitchen includes Corian countertops, a cabinet pantry, and generous storage. Down the hall, you’ll find a guest bedroom and full hall bath with a tub/shower combo and single vanity. The primary suite is privately situated at the end

Key facts

• Mill villa estates
• Fenced area
• Galley-style kitchen

Tags

• MILL VILLA ESTATES
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• CORIAN COUNTERTOPS
• FENCED AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed upon approval; Senior community; Community clubhouse; Fitness center; Pool and spa; Activities available; Game room; Guest parking; RV storage

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 or more spaces)
• Utilities: Community in-ground pool; Community spa
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide
• Construction: Wood siding; Crawl space foundation with pillar/post/pier
• Exterior features: Back yard with landscaping; Low maintenance yard; Private entrance; Porch steps; Partial fencing; Shed(s); Located on a cul-de-sac; Sloped up lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Solid surface counters; Disposal; Free-standing range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (street level; primary bedroom suite on main level)
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with solid surface, stall shower, and window; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub, solid surface, and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; No additional rooms; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with hookups and cabinets; Laundry facility on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $384 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.9% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elementary (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,179 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 350 students, 75% FRL); Sonora High (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 919 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.15%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	85
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	72
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,198
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $35,209
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $427	+0% $384	+5% $340	+10% $297
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $321	+0% $384	+5% $446	+10% $508
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $415	base $384	+0.5pp $351	+1.0pp $318

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
18. 2026-01-26
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $2,778
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$667
• After-tax cash flow: $3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Listed $125,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $131 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.