4238 Fallen Oaks Dr · Houston, TX 77091

$187,600

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1972 6,198 sqft lot $139/sqft · 20% below area Est $233k · 20% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Nicely landscaped
• Large backyard

Tags

• FRESH PAINT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW A/C
• NEW HEATING SYSTEM
• LARGE BACKYARD
• NICELY LANDSCAPED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-116 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smith El (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 779 students, 97% FRL); Black Middle (math 38% / reading 47%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,329 students, 58% FRL); Scarborough H S (math 19% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 750 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,550/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 3210% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,049 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.66%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,117
• List price: $187,600
• Delta: -19.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4207 Fallen Oaks Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,393 (+4%)	2mo	$207,000	$149	89
5304 Teodoro Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,527 (+13%)	2mo	$309,990	$203	63
5929 Manning Oaks St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+2%)	2mo	$269,990	$197	63
5918 Manning Oaks St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+2%)	3mo	$259,990	$189	63
5925 Manning Oaks St	0.61mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+2%)	2mo	$259,990	$189	63
5917 Manning Oaks St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+2%)	3mo	$259,990	$189	63
5913 Manning Oaks St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,372 (+2%)	4mo	$254,990	$186	62
1914 Viking Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,291 (-4%)	2mo	$475,000	$368	61
5920 Manning Oaks St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,431 (+6%)	1mo	$298,000	$208	57
5932 Manning Oaks St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,431 (+6%)	3mo	$299,990	$210	54
4410 Viking Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,403 (+4%)	3mo	$430,000	$306	54
1902 De Milo Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+15%)	2mo	$535,000	$347	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-39,152
• Equity at exit: $27,972

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-49,037
• Equity at exit: $16,220

Cash invested: $52,528 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77091

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$984
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,352/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $167,043

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-63	+0% $-116	+5% $-169	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-178	+0% $-116	+5% $-55	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-69	base $-116	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,900
• Closing costs: $5,628
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 38 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2303 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1061	$1,145	$1.08	5d	3	0.28mi
4601 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,395	$1.56	26d	1	1.01mi
6615 Goldspier St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,150	$1.16	24d	1	1.03mi
4701 W 43rd St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1508	$2,400	$1.59	6d	1	1.05mi
5131 Spring Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,295	$1.27	26d	1	1.08mi
4225 Mangum Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	792	$1,297	$1.64	0d	4	1.24mi
1200 W Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,295	$1.38	1d	11	1.25mi
4000 Watonga Blvd Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,309	$1.44	9d	1	1.26mi
4000 Watonga Blvd Unit 4057 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,293	$1.42	1d	1	1.26mi
4000 Watonga Blvd Unit 4033 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1210	$1,363	$1.13	1d	1	1.26mi
5950 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$1,347	$1.69	24d	1	1.27mi
5500 Antoine Dr Unit 232 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$970	$0.95	45d	1	1.27mi
5500 Antoine Dr Apt 222 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,050	$0.91	45d	1	1.27mi
5500 Antoine Dr Unit 144 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$940	$1.05	45d	1	1.27mi
5670 Birchmont Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	45d	1	1.27mi
6555 Sealey St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,700	$1.50	26d	1	1.34mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0804 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,008	$0.85	4d	1	1.36mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0102 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$755	$0.82	26d	1	1.36mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 502 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$781	$0.85	9d	1	1.36mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0218 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$854	$0.83	1d	1	1.36mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 401 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$912	$0.89	9d	1	1.36mi
5555 Antoine Dr Apt 309 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$822	$0.90	9d	1	1.36mi
7008 Emma Lou St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1610	$3,000	$1.86	20d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0508 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$777	$0.85	4d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0217 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$880	$0.86	45d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0903 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	917	$795	$0.87	45d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0816 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,260	$1.07	4d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0405 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$880	$0.86	9d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 1012 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1027	$859	$0.84	9d	1	1.37mi
5555 Antoine Dr Unit 0614 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1179	$985	$0.84	45d	1	1.37mi
5555 Holly View Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$1,315	$1.71	1d	15	1.44mi
5359 Deep Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,409	$1.15	26d	1	1.47mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1052	$900	$0.86	1d	9	1.47mi
5625 Antoine Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	888	$900	$1.01	26d	12	1.47mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 3613 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,970	$1.53	24d	1	1.49mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 3615B Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1285	$1,845	$1.44	17d	1	1.49mi
4800 Lamonte Ln Unit 4833 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1571	$1,609	$1.02	1d	1	1.49mi
5801 N Houston Rosslyn Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	739	$1,060	$1.43	45d	18	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $187,600 Pending 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $187,600 Active Under Contract 152 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $187,600 Active Under Contract 151 DOM
4. 2026-05-04
   historical Active Under Contract 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

5. 2026-04-27
   status Active 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

6. 2026-02-24
   status Active 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

7. 2026-02-24
   historical 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

8. 2025-11-14
   historical 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

9. 2025-08-25
   status Active 291-char remark

   Show marketing remark (291 chars)

   This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

10. 2025-06-24
    status Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

11. 2025-04-26
    status Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

12. 2025-04-18
    status Option Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

13. 2025-04-09
    status Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

14. 2025-04-07
    status Option Pending 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

15. 2025-03-28
    price $187,600 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

16. 2025-02-21
    listed $197,600 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    This is a really nice starter and home , featuring fresh paint ,Fairly new roof and new A/C and heating system as well water heater , the home has large backyard great for family and entertainment the front yard is also nicely landscaped. THIS HOME IS JUST WAITING FOR YOUR BUYERS/FAMILY

17. 1989-06-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,352 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,433 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,509
• − Property taxes: −$3,352
• − Insurance: −$938
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$5,457
• Taxable loss: −$4,627
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $-286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,728
• Household income: $35,432
• Rent vs Own: 64.6% rent · 35.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3210.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 45% Two or more races 15% White 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.19%
• Current HPI: 283.7523
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.1% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-09 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $187,600 HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $197,600 HARMLS
• 1989-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,352 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.