514 Forest Oak Dr · Lyons, TX 77879

$179,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 975 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1986 1.00 ac lot $185/sqft · 17% above area Est $153k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful property near Lake Somerville! This offering includes an adorable 2-bedroom home with an adjoining lot giving you an acre to spread out and enjoy nature. The brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, laminate & tile flooring, open kitchen/living area and charming board ceiling. Washer/dryer and refrigerator convey. Roof replaced in 2025. Water heater replaced in 2023. Septic tank replaced in 2014 and added aerobic system. Additionally, there is a large 13x36 workshop along with a 12x12 storage shed with double doors. Selling "AS IS". Room dimensions are approximate. Please note this listing includes 2 lots (512 & 514 Forest Oak)/2 tax ID's. Existing survey is available for the lot with the home. Don't miss the opportunity to own this property which is filled with character & charm.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Large workshop
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN LIVING AREA
• LARGE WORKSHOP
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $286 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $169k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.9% in Lyons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Somerville ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #579 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 221 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.82%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,455
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: 17.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
514 Forest Oak Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	975 (0%)	0mo	$179,900	$185	100
406 Bengals Bnd	0.24mi	2/1.5	828 (-15%)	22mo	$159,000	$192	43
408 Boysenberry Rd	0.52mi	2/2.0	840 (-14%)	12mo	$119,000	$142	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $23,362
• Equity at exit: $63,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $79,685
• Equity at exit: $85,672

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77879

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,409/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $286

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
341 Little Berry Rd Somerville, TX	2.0	2.0	864	$1,800	$2.08	43d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Wonderful property near Lake Somerville! This offering includes an adorable 2-bedroom home with an adjoining lot giving you an acre to spread out and enjoy nature. The brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, laminate & tile flooring, open kitchen/living area and charming board ceiling. Washer/dryer and refrigerator convey. Roof replaced in 2025. Water heater replaced in 2023. Septic tank replaced in 2014 and added aerobic system. Additionally, there is a large 13x36 workshop along with a 12x12 storage shed with double doors. Selling "AS IS". Room dimensions are approximate. Please note this listing includes 2 lots (512 & 514 Forest Oak)/2 tax ID's. Existing survey is available for the lot with the home. Don't miss the opportunity to own this property which is filled with character & charm.

2. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Wonderful property near Lake Somerville! This offering includes an adorable 2-bedroom home with an adjoining lot giving you an acre to spread out and enjoy nature. The brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, laminate & tile flooring, open kitchen/living area and charming board ceiling. Washer/dryer and refrigerator convey. Roof replaced in 2025. Water heater replaced in 2023. Septic tank replaced in 2014 and added aerobic system. Additionally, there is a large 13x36 workshop along with a 12x12 storage shed with double doors. Selling "AS IS". Room dimensions are approximate. Please note this listing includes 2 lots (512 & 514 Forest Oak)/2 tax ID's. Existing survey is available for the lot with the home. Don't miss the opportunity to own this property which is filled with character & charm.

3. 2026-02-24
   listed $179,900 Active 828-char remark

   Show marketing remark (828 chars)

   Wonderful property near Lake Somerville! This offering includes an adorable 2-bedroom home with an adjoining lot giving you an acre to spread out and enjoy nature. The brick home features a wood-burning fireplace, laminate & tile flooring, open kitchen/living area and charming board ceiling. Washer/dryer and refrigerator convey. Roof replaced in 2025. Water heater replaced in 2023. Septic tank replaced in 2014 and added aerobic system. Additionally, there is a large 13x36 workshop along with a 12x12 storage shed with double doors. Selling "AS IS". Room dimensions are approximate. Please note this listing includes 2 lots (512 & 514 Forest Oak)/2 tax ID's. Existing survey is available for the lot with the home. Don't miss the opportunity to own this property which is filled with character & charm.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,409 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,292 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,884/yr (+$157/mo · 133.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,409
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$126
• After-tax cash flow: $3,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,453
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #6936
• State rank: #579 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lyons

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 370
• Population (ZIP): 4,775

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.20%
• Current HPI: 178.3416
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $179,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,409 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.