Bartlett Plan · Sienna, TX 77459

$529,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,039 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Bartlett is a well-balanced one-story home that brings together the ease of single-level living with the flexibility buyers often need for work, guests, and everyday routines. Just inside, the layout opens into a spacious kitchen, casual dining area, and great room that create a natural center for gathering and day-to-day living. A private study and thoughtfully placed secondary bedrooms add useful separation, while the primary suite offers a quieter retreat with room to unwind. Covered outdoor living extends the home even further, giving Bartlett a polished, welcoming flow from front to back. Additional Plan Included Options Below!

Key facts

• Sliding glass doors
• Covered patio
• Free standing tub

Tags

• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• COVERED PATIO
• BUILT IN KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• FREE STANDING TUB
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 10103 Stately Crown Dr, Missouri City, TX 77459; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $529,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Bartlett)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 3,039

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Bartlett (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $529,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $540,942.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $530k).
• Recommended offer: $498k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,309/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($129k/yr) (locally 1004% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($498k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $498,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $540,942
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10143 Deerpark Dr	0.12mi	4/3.5	2,874 (-5%)	2mo	$475,000	$165	83
10039 Cypress Path	0.35mi	4/3.5	3,348 (+10%)	0mo	$585,000	$175	67
10018 Foggy Riv	0.49mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,944 (-3%)	0mo	$449,999	$153	66
1539 Watermont Dr	0.73mi	4/3.5	3,002 (-1%)	1mo	$599,000	$200	63
1807 Watermont Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,078 (+1%)	1mo	$535,000	$174	62
1518 Sunrise View Ln	0.50mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,234 (+6%)	1mo	$590,000	$182	60
10115 Cypress Path	0.36mi	4/3.5	3,457 (+14%)	2mo	$520,900	$151	58
2018 Edgemont Pl	0.55mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,227 (+6%)	2mo	$499,500	$155	57
9010 Bayou Spring Ct	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,180 (+5%)	0mo	$605,000	$190	56
1939 Creekwood Cv	0.58mi	4/4.0	3,344 (+10%)	2mo	$594,990	$178	52
9019 Serenity Frst	0.72mi	4/4.5	3,474 (+14%)	3mo	$824,900	$237	36
1614 Summer Pine Ct	0.73mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,425 (+13%)	1mo	$630,000	$184	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-43,280
• Equity at exit: $113,451

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-32,142
• Equity at exit: $105,083

Cash invested: $151,464 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,837
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$676 /mo · $8,114/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,115
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,732

Max offer price $540,942

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $135,236
• Closing costs: $16,228
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9006 Meadow Bridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3958	$6,580	$1.66	2d	1	0.72mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.98mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	1.01mi
2718 Van Gogh Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	3036	$3,595	$1.18	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $529,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $529,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $529,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $529,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $529,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $529,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $529,900 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $529,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $529,900 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $529,900 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 640-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $529,900 Active 45 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,301
• − Property taxes: −$8,114
• − Insurance: −$2,705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,097
• − Management: −$5,097
• − Depreciation: −$15,736
• Taxable loss: −$3,342
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$802
• After-tax cash flow: $6,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B