30423 Desert Vw · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$200,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1981 2.01 ac lot $178/sqft · 46% below area Est $369k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Lucerne Valley! Located at 30423 Desert View Road, this property features a manufactured home with built-on additions offering approximately 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The home sits on a fully fenced parcel with plenty of space and potential for improvement or rental income. A detached 25' x 28' double garage includes its own bathroom and shower, adding versatility for workshop use, storage, or future possibilities. The property also has its own private well, a valuable feature in this rural High Desert area. With room to make improvements and add value, this is a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a project with upside potential.

Key facts

• Fully fenced parcel
• Private well
• 2.01 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED PARCEL
• DETACHED DOUBLE GARAGE
• PRIVATE WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $809 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.7% in Lucerne Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $200k implies a 1718% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.33%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,454
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -45.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $160,375
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.71×
• Total profit: $431,623
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $881/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$536
• Net cashflow: $809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $922	-5% $866	+0% $809	+5% $752	+10% $696
Rent	-10% $607	-5% $708	+0% $809	+5% $910	+10% $1,010
Rate	-1.0pp $910	-0.5pp $860	base $809	+0.5pp $757	+1.0pp $704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30881 Pawnee St Unit B Lucerne Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,550	$2.32	0d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-03-14
   listed $200,000 Active 695-char remark

   Show marketing remark (695 chars)

   Investor opportunity in Lucerne Valley! Located at 30423 Desert View Road, this property features a manufactured home with built-on additions offering approximately 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. The home sits on a fully fenced parcel with plenty of space and potential for improvement or rental income. A detached 25' x 28' double garage includes its own bathroom and shower, adding versatility for workshop use, storage, or future possibilities. The property also has its own private well, a valuable feature in this rural High Desert area. With room to make improvements and add value, this is a great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a project with upside potential.

10. 1986-03-21
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $881 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 72.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone D · 41% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$881
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,448
• − Management: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $6,801
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $8,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1718.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Listed $200,000 CRMLS
• 1986-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $881 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.