8895 Bay 16th St Unit 2b · New York, NY 11204

$274,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1949 Fair condition Est $343k · 20% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 8895 Bay 16th Street, Unit 2B - a bright and airy end unit nestled in a peaceful location down the block from Shore Parkway. ! This unit offers an updated kitchen with hardwood flooring throughout. A tiled bathroom, a large bedroom with 2 closets for extra storage, and plenty of windows bringing in natural light. Separate dinette and living room for comfortable living. You have your own washer/dryer hookup. Enjoy the quiet setting while being just minutes from Shore Parkway, shopping, and public transportation! Priced to sell for a cash deal.

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• 2 closets
• Large bedroom

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• TILED BATHROOM
• LARGE BEDROOM
• 2 CLOSETS
• PLENTY OF WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Bayview Owners association; Monthly association dues; Pets allowed; Association covers taxes, snow removal, and exterior maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: 220-volt electrical service
• Home design: Single-story property; Built around 2020
• Construction: Brick construction; Built approximately in 2020
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Located in the R-5 zone

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Central air conditioning (units); Good overall condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $275k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.9%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,661/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 4963% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($267k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,136 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.16%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $343,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8895 Bay 16th St Unit 2b	0.00mi	1/1.0	700 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$357	100
153 Bay 26 St Unit 3f	0.56mi	2/1.0 (+1)	730 (+4%)	4mo	$358,000	$490	59
258 Bay 19th St Unit B	0.14mi	1/1.0	800 (+14%)	16mo	$313,425	$392	56
8800 Bay Pkwy Unit 4a	0.69mi	2/1.0 (+1)	739 (+6%)	8mo	$475,000	$643	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-17,531
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $65,536
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11204

• Home prices YoY: -32.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.9%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,661 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $203

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2286 Cropsey Ave Unit 19C Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	544	$3,600	$6.62	18d	1	0.82mi
1131 86th St #4 Brooklyn, NY	1.0	1.0	550	$2,350	$4.27	24d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $274,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $274,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $274,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-04-15
   listed $274,900 Active
9. 2025-07-31
   historical
10. 2025-05-15
    price $274,900
11. 2025-04-02
    price $285,000
12. 2025-02-27
    price $290,000
13. 2025-02-05
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,555
• − Management: −$2,555
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$2,067
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$496
• After-tax cash flow: $2,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This unit is in fair condition with moderate rehab needs. It offers an updated kitchen and hardwood flooring, but requires some cleaning and minor repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Minor ceiling fan — slightly dusty
• Minor light fixture — slightly dusty

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace ceiling fan — newer, more efficient fan improves air circulation and reduces energy consumption
• Both replace light fixture — newer, more efficient light fixture improves lighting and reduces energy consumption

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
ceiling fan · slightly dusty	Minor	$500–3,000
light fixture · slightly dusty	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace ceiling fan — newer, more efficient fan improves air circulation and reduces energy consumption ↑
• Both replace light fixture — newer, more efficient light fixture improves lighting and reduces energy consumption ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Kings County · 2,614,986 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 79,800
• Household income: $69,479
• Rent vs Own: 65.5% rent · 34.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 4963.0

Population outlook (Kings County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,847,441 people
• By 2030: 2,937,006 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 3,095,491 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 3,228,968 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 3,321,723 · +16.7%
• By 2100: 3,111,387 · +9.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Asian 29% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 44% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 23% English-only · Chinese 23% German/W. Germanic 19% Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kings

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.0) · D 72.0% · R 28.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 59.4pp · 2024: 44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.0 2020: D+54.8 2016: D+61.8 2012: D+63.9 2008: D+59.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.07%
• Current HPI: 443.1608
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.87%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $274,900 SIBORMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — SIBORMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $274,900 SIBORMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $285,000 SIBORMLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $290,000 SIBORMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $299,000 SIBORMLS