Is TBD Branding Iron in Lake Medina Shores, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it B- with a 18.1% cap rate and $591/mo modeled cash flow at a $60,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for TBD Branding Iron?

The modeled cap rate is 18.1% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,346/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

B- Composite 69.88

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.3/10.0
Livability +2.8/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$60,000

TBD Branding Iron · Lake Medina Shores, TX 78003

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Land · 397 Days on market

Good condition 10,454 sqft lot $71/sqft · 57% below area $58/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Great Investment opportunity! 2 bedroom 1 bath home on just under a quarter acre. The property is completely perimeter fenced, septic was recently installed. Updates to siding, flooring, electrical, decks, paint, and more! Waiting for the finish out. Water and Electric are needed. Power is close. Owners Association can provide details on what it takes to get a water meter. Eager to sell, make an offer!

Key facts

Updates to siding
Updates to flooring
Updates to decks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Medina Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,318 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Bandera ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Alkek El (math 32% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,208 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 630 students, 61% FRL); Bandera Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 555 students, 56% FRL); Bandera H S (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 713 students, 48% FRL).
Market conditions: 608 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Bandera County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 397 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 397 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.24% ✓
Cap rate: 18.11%
Cash-on-cash: 42.21%
DSCR: 2.88
GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $139,539
List price: $60,000
Delta: -57.00%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
118 Matt Dillon Dr	0.16mi	2/1.0	632 (-25%)	2mo	$170,000	$269	66
164 Pr 1523	1.40mi	2/1.0	850 (+1%)	3mo	$175,000	$206	61
553 Matt Dillon Dr	0.54mi	2/1.0	900 (+7%)	4mo	$149,000	$166	60
8362 Wharton Dock Rd	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	792 (-6%)	15mo	$69,000	$87	56
660 Skyline Dr	0.87mi	2/2.0	840 (0%)	12mo	$205,000	$244	51
261 Northeast Dr	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	769 (-8%)	20mo	$159,900	$208	38
549 N Lakeshore Dr	0.80mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	20mo	$25,000	$32	37
1040 LAKESHORE Lakeshore	0.85mi	3/2.0 (+1)	891 (+6%)	10mo	$110,000	$123	37
6401 Whartons Dock	1.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	726 (-14%)	1mo	$160,000	$220	37
280 N Lakeshore Dr	0.91mi	2/1.0	660 (-21%)	11mo	$165,000	$250	31
1004 Scenic Dr	0.59mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (+19%)	16mo	$50,000	$50	29
380 Brushy Crk	0.97mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+24%)	7mo	$135,000	$130	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 38.9%
Equity multiple: 2.66×
Total profit: $27,969
Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

IRR: 45.4%
Equity multiple: 5.35×
Total profit: $73,044
Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78003

Home prices YoY: -14.3%
Active inventory: 608
Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,346 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$315
Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
Insurance: −$25
HOA: −$58
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $598

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $632	-5% $612	+0% $591	+5% $570	+10% $549
Rent	-10% $485	-5% $538	+0% $591	+5% $644	+10% $697
Rate	-1.0pp $621	-0.5pp $606	base $591	+0.5pp $575	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $15,000
Closing costs: $1,800
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1110 Grandview Cir Bandera, TX	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	93d	1	0.73mi
535 Oak Lawn Dr Unit 4 Bandera, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	73d	1	0.78mi
161 Water St Unit B Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	93d	1	1.01mi
161 Water St Unit A Pipe Creek, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	93d	1	1.01mi
146 Cedar St Pipe Creek, TX	2.0	1.5	1092	$1,695	$1.55	56d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail $58/mo · $696/yr

Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $60,000 Active 397 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $60,000 Active 395 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $60,000 Active 394 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $60,000 Active 393 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $60,000 Active 392 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $60,000 Active 389 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $60,000 Active 387 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $60,000 Active 386 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $60,000 Active 384 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $60,000 Active 382 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $60,000 Active 381 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $60,000 Active 380 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $60,000 Active 378 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $60,000 Active 376 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $60,000 Active 375 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $60,000 Active 374 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $60,000 Active 373 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $60,000 Active 372 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $60,000 Active 371 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $60,000 Active 370 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $60,000 Active 369 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $60,000 Active 368 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $60,000 Active 367 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $60,000 Active 365 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $60,000 Active 364 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $60,000 Active 363 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $60,000 Active 361 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $60,000 Active 360 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $60,000 Active 359 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $60,000 Active 358 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $60,000 Active 357 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $60,000 Active 356 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $60,000 Active 355 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $60,000 Active 354 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $60,000 Active 352 DOM
2026-06-22

statusdays on market $60,000 Active 350 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $60,000 Price Change 349 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $60,000 Price Change 346 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $60,000 Price Change 345 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $60,000 Price Change 344 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $60,000 Price Change 343 DOM
2026-06-13

pricestatusdays on market $60,000 Price Change 341 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $70,000 Active 337 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $70,000 Active 335 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $70,000 Active 332 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $70,000 Active 331 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $70,000 Active 330 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $70,000 Active 329 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $70,000 Active 328 DOM
2025-12-18

price $70,000 405-char remark

Show marketing remark (405 chars)

Great Investment opportunity! 2 bedroom 1 bath home on just under a quarter acre. The property is completely perimeter fenced, septic was recently installed. Updates to siding, flooring, electrical, decks, paint, and more! Waiting for the finish out. Water and Electric are needed. Power is close. Owners Association can provide details on what it takes to get a water meter. Eager to sell, make an offer!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $16,155
− Mortgage interest: −$3,361
− Property taxes: −$900
− Insurance: −$300
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
− Management: −$1,292
− HOA: −$696
− Depreciation: −$1,745
Taxable income: $6,568

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,576
After-tax cash flow: $5,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,200–$12,600 screening

This property is in good condition with fresh paint and new flooring. It's ready for move-in and would benefit from exterior painting and new windows to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Deferred maintenance Est. $60,000–$180,000 screening

Major Roof (roof) — No roof visible in photos
Major Windows (windows) — No windows visible in photos
Major Electrical (electrical) — No electrical panel visible in photos
Major Plumbing (plumbing) — No plumbing fixtures visible in photos
Major Exterior (exterior) — No exterior walls or siding visible in photos
Major Other — No other components visible in photos

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
Both Install new windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and property value. ↑
Both Landscaping — Landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑
Rental Install water meter — Water meter is needed for utility access and rental readiness. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alkek El F TX #2,208/4,322 Nat'l #24,614/41,679 Middle Bandera Middle F TX #930/1,662 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Bandera H S F TX #1,002/1,632 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Bandera ISD
NCES district ID: 4809360
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $48,771
Composite: 30.61/100
National rank: #6194
State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Lake Medina Shores

Score: 56/100
State rank: #1318
US rank: #22715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Lake Medina Shores, TX
County: Bandera · 22,614 people
Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Population (ZIP): 9,594
Household income: $54,500
Rent vs Own: 15.9% rent · 84.1% own
Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

Population outlook (Bandera County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 22,614 people
By 2030: 23,102 · +2.2%
By 2040: 23,489 · +3.9%
By 2050: 23,264 · +2.9%
By 2075: 23,607 · +4.4%
By 2100: 22,265 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 15% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bandera

2024 margin: Solid R (+61.9) · D 18.6% · R 80.5%
2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -50.4pp · 2024: -61.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+61.9 2020: R+59.4 2016: R+63.0 2012: R+59.0 2008: R+50.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -35.80%
Current HPI: 215.0687
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+723.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

2025-12-18 Price Changed $70,000 LERA
2025-08-15 Price Changed $80,000 LERA
2025-07-07 Listed $87,500 LERA
2023-12-13 Listing Removed — LERA
2023-10-23 Listing Removed — NTREIS
2023-06-19 Listed $9,000 LERA
2023-04-23 Listed $8,500 NTREIS
2023-03-27 Sold (MLS) — LERA
2023-02-05 Pending — LERA
2022-09-11 Price Changed $6,500 LERA
2022-09-11 Listed $8,500 LERA

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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