10407 Briarbend Dr #3 · Creve Coeur, MO 63146

$114,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 836 sqft · Condo public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1963 $138/sqft · at area comps Est $115k · at est. $328/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath main floor condo offering 836 sq ft of comfortable living space in the highly sought-after Pattonville School District. This move-in-ready unit features brand new vinyl flooring, fresh paint throughout, and new windows in both the spacious living room and rear bedroom, providing abundant natural light and energy efficiency. Enjoy a cozy kitchen with a charming breakfast area, perfect for casual dining, and a generously sized living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Convenient main-floor access makes everyday living easy, while the basement provides additional space for laundry. Residents also enjoy access to the community pool — just in time for summer! A fantastic opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors alike.

Key facts

• $328 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($189/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Ladue (suburban): math 64% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #2 of 324 in MO (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,105
• List price: $114,999
• Delta: -0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $59,799
• Equity at exit: $103,600

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $168,477
• Equity at exit: $223,418

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63146

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,087/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$328
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10427 Briarbend Dr #8 Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	858	$1,350	$1.57	23d	1	0.08mi
10364 Forest Brook Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	43d	1	0.11mi
10368 Forest Brook Ln Unit F Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,350	$1.28	43d	1	0.13mi
10352 Forest Brook Ln Unit G Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	43d	1	0.14mi
10304 Oxford Hill Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,489	$1.61	2d	47	0.33mi
1380 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,550	$1.70	14d	1	0.63mi
1434 Willow Brook Cove Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	910	$1,395	$1.53	43d	1	0.65mi
9826 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,275	$1.42	43d	1	0.85mi
9814 Greenery Ln Unit D Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	875	$1,250	$1.43	23d	1	0.85mi
9882 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	43d	1	0.85mi
9814 Greenery Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,475	$1.64	43d	1	0.85mi
10900 Oak Forest Pkwy Dr St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	3d	6	0.88mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $328 · $3,936/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,999 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,999 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,999 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,999 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,999 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,999 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,999 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $114,999 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-02-13
    listed $120,000 Active 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath main floor condo offering 836 sq ft of comfortable living space in the highly sought-after Pattonville School District. This move-in-ready unit features brand new vinyl flooring, fresh paint throughout, and new windows in both the spacious living room and rear bedroom, providing abundant natural light and energy efficiency. Enjoy a cozy kitchen with a charming breakfast area, perfect for casual dining, and a generously sized living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Convenient main-floor access makes everyday living easy, while the basement provides additional space for laundry. Residents also enjoy access to the community pool — just in time for summer! A fantastic opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors alike.

15. 2026-02-12
    historical $120,000 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully updated 2-bedroom, 1-bath main floor condo offering 836 sq ft of comfortable living space in the highly sought-after Pattonville School District. This move-in-ready unit features brand new vinyl flooring, fresh paint throughout, and new windows in both the spacious living room and rear bedroom, providing abundant natural light and energy efficiency. Enjoy a cozy kitchen with a charming breakfast area, perfect for casual dining, and a generously sized living room ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Convenient main-floor access makes everyday living easy, while the basement provides additional space for laundry. Residents also enjoy access to the community pool — just in time for summer! A fantastic opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors alike.

16. 2025-12-09
    listed $1,150 Active
17. 2025-05-09
    listed $1,300
18. 2025-04-30
    historical
19. 2025-04-01
    price $124,900
20. 2025-02-24
    listed $129,900 Active
21. 2025-02-20
    historical
22. 2023-11-27
    historical
23. 2023-11-27
    listed $119,000 Active
24. 2023-11-06
    historical
25. 2023-11-03
    soldstatus Closed
26. 2023-10-14
    status Pending
27. 2023-10-12
    listed $89,900 Active
28. 2001-11-09
    soldstatus
29. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,087 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,087
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − HOA: −$3,936
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$1,537
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$369
• After-tax cash flow: $558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ladue
• NCES district ID: 2917820
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $109,713
• Composite: 62.57/100
• National rank: #681
• State rank: #2 of 324 in MO

Livability — Creve Coeur

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1519

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 20,932
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,678
• Household income: $84,756
• Rent vs Own: 42.5% rent · 57.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1156.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Asian 17% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.10%
• Current HPI: 711.49
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.96%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Listed $1,150 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listed for Rent $1,300 REDFIN
• 2025-04-30 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Listed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-20 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-27 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-27 Listed $119,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-03 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-12 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,087 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.