6215 E Turquoise Ave · Phoenix, AZ 85253

$4,200,000

7 bd · 2.0 ba · 8,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 298 Days on market

Built 2008 0.79 ac lot $512/sqft · 25% below area Est $6163k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Main House 8,287 sqft. Listed Below Market, No HOA Paradise Valley Property. Timeless mix of Santa Barbara/Mediterranean architecture. Designed for multigenerational living, luxury entertaining, or income-generating potential, residence features a finished basement with theater room, wine cellar, and billiard bar, plus a detached guest casita with a private fitness center and salon. The chef's kitchen is fully outfitted with Wolf, Sub-Zero, and Miele appliances, AV room, while the outdoor oasis includes a heated grotto slide pool, spa, putting green, sports court, and gazebo with a built-in kitchen, all framed by breathtaking mountain views. Additional highlights include smart home automation, RV gate access, 5-car garage, lush grass and desert landscaping. See Feature List in Document Tab There are two sides to the casita. South Entrance is to the 1 bedroom, 1 bath with kitchen. North Entrance is to the Salon, Fitness Room with Bathroom. Main House - 8,287 sq.ft. (Finished Basement 1,746 sq.ft. Attached Upstairs Guest Suite - 669 sq.ft.), Detached Casita - 805 sq.ft., See Floor plan with measurements in Documents Tab.

Key facts

• Billiard bar
• Theater room
• Wine cellar

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• THEATER ROOM
• WINE CELLAR
• BILLIARD BAR
• DETACHED GUEST CASITA
• PRIVATE FITNESS CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21k ($-257k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $410k (90.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $484k (88.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $410k (90.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.2% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cheyenne Traditional School (math 78% / reading 75%, grade A, #24 of 1,109 statewide, top 2%, 880 students, 4% FRL); Cocopah Middle School (math 63% / reading 63%, grade B+, #3 of 218 statewide, top 1%, 886 students, 9% FRL); Chaparral High School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #82 of 381 statewide, top 22%, 2,038 students, 6% FRL) — zoned schools average 6% FRL vs 21% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($185k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $449k of equity ($29k loan paydown + $420k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$722k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $475k; list at $4.20M implies a 784% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $410,001 (90.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 90% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.12% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -21.89%
• DSCR: 0.03
• GRM: 72.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $6,163,412
• List price: $4,200,000
• Delta: -31.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6324 E Cochise Rd	0.35mi	7/6.5	7,711 (-6%)	5mo	$6,700,000	$869	52
5721 E Bar Z Ln	0.66mi	7/7.5	8,481 (+3%)	5mo	$10,500,000	$1,238	40
9147 N Kober Rd	0.60mi	6/9.0 (-1)	8,522 (+4%)	16mo	$7,090,000	$832	32
9151 N Kober Rd	0.64mi	6/8.0 (-1)	7,041 (-14%)	6mo	$6,300,000	$895	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $944,337
• Equity at exit: $3,783,693

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $3,914,397
• Equity at exit: $8,159,676

Cash invested: $1,176,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85253

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 72.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,025
• Tax from tax record: −$1,502 /mo · $18,025/yr
• Insurance: −$1,750
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,016
• Net cashflow: $-21,454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $31,997

Max offer price $410,001

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19,077	-5% $-20,266	+0% $-21,454	+5% $-22,643	+10% $-23,832
Rent	-10% $-21,837	-5% $-21,645	+0% $-21,454	+5% $-21,263	+10% $-21,072
Rate	-1.0pp $-19,339	-0.5pp $-20,386	base $-21,454	+0.5pp $-22,543	+1.0pp $-23,650

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,050,000
• Closing costs: $126,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9300 N 58th St Paradise Valley, AZ	8.0	6.0	7000	$30,000	$4.29	45d	1	0.61mi
10019 N 57th St Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	9.0	6623	$60,000	$9.06	26d	1	0.65mi
6730 E Sunnyvale Rd Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	7.5	9517	$26,495	$2.78	45d	1	1.02mi
6730 E Sunnyvale Rd Paradise Valley, AZ	6.0	6.5	9517	$22,495	$2.36	4d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 295 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 294 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 293 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 292 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 290 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 286 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 285 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 284 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 281 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 280 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 279 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 278 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 277 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    price $4,200,000 1136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1136 chars)

    Main House 8,287 sqft. Listed Below Market, No HOA Paradise Valley Property. Timeless mix of Santa Barbara/Mediterranean architecture. Designed for multigenerational living, luxury entertaining, or income-generating potential, residence features a finished basement with theater room, wine cellar, and billiard bar, plus a detached guest casita with a private fitness center and salon. The chef's kitchen is fully outfitted with Wolf, Sub-Zero, and Miele appliances, AV room, while the outdoor oasis includes a heated grotto slide pool, spa, putting green, sports court, and gazebo with a built-in kitchen, all framed by breathtaking mountain views. Additional highlights include smart home automation, RV gate access, 5-car garage, lush grass and desert landscaping. See Feature List in Document Tab There are two sides to the casita. South Entrance is to the 1 bedroom, 1 bath with kitchen. North Entrance is to the Salon, Fitness Room with Bathroom. Main House - 8,287 sq.ft. (Finished Basement 1,746 sq.ft. Attached Upstairs Guest Suite - 669 sq.ft.), Detached Casita - 805 sq.ft., See Floor plan with measurements in Documents Tab.

16. 2025-10-01
    historical $21,750
17. 2025-08-27
    listed $4,350,000 Active 1136-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1136 chars)

    Main House 8,287 sqft. Listed Below Market, No HOA Paradise Valley Property. Timeless mix of Santa Barbara/Mediterranean architecture. Designed for multigenerational living, luxury entertaining, or income-generating potential, residence features a finished basement with theater room, wine cellar, and billiard bar, plus a detached guest casita with a private fitness center and salon. The chef's kitchen is fully outfitted with Wolf, Sub-Zero, and Miele appliances, AV room, while the outdoor oasis includes a heated grotto slide pool, spa, putting green, sports court, and gazebo with a built-in kitchen, all framed by breathtaking mountain views. Additional highlights include smart home automation, RV gate access, 5-car garage, lush grass and desert landscaping. See Feature List in Document Tab There are two sides to the casita. South Entrance is to the 1 bedroom, 1 bath with kitchen. North Entrance is to the Salon, Fitness Room with Bathroom. Main House - 8,287 sq.ft. (Finished Basement 1,746 sq.ft. Attached Upstairs Guest Suite - 669 sq.ft.), Detached Casita - 805 sq.ft., See Floor plan with measurements in Documents Tab.

18. 2025-07-10
    historical
19. 2025-06-02
    status Active
20. 2025-06-01
    historical
21. 2025-04-23
    price $4,350,000
22. 2025-03-17
    price $4,750,000
23. 2025-01-10
    price $4,870,000
24. 2024-09-29
    price $4,950,000
25. 2024-07-31
    listed $21,750
26. 2024-07-31
    status Active
27. 2024-07-03
    historical $21,750
28. 2024-07-03
    historical
29. 2024-06-10
    listed $21,750
30. 2024-06-10
    listed $5,160,000 Active
31. 2022-04-05
    historical
32. 2021-09-15
    price $3,700,000
33. 2021-07-07
    listed $3,850,000 Active
34. 2019-08-26
    historical
35. 2019-07-30
    listed $2,600,000 Active
36. 2018-06-01
    historical
37. 2017-11-22
    price $2,625,000
38. 2017-10-09
    status Active
39. 2017-09-30
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
40. 2017-06-04
    price $2,750,000
41. 2017-02-06
    listed $2,925,000 Active
42. 2016-09-30
    historical
43. 2016-09-09
    price $2,825,000
44. 2016-04-01
    listed $2,850,000 Active
45. 2015-11-03
    historical
46. 2015-10-01
    price $3,200,000
47. 2015-06-02
    price $3,490,000
48. 2015-04-09
    price $3,600,000
49. 2014-11-05
    listed $3,875,000 Active
50. 2004-03-18
    soldstatus $475,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $18,025 · $1,502/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $27,720 · $2,310/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,695/yr (+$808/mo · 53.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$235,265
• − Property taxes: −$18,025
• − Insurance: −$21,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,646
• − Management: −$4,646
• − Depreciation: −$122,182
• Taxable loss: −$347,692
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$83,446
• After-tax cash flow: $-174,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 17,904
• Household income: $184,979
• Rent vs Own: 15.6% rent · 84.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 298.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.95%
• Current HPI: 416.0855
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.63%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+784.2% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $4,200,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Rental Removed $21,750 ARMLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $4,350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $4,350,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $4,750,000 ARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $4,870,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-29 Price Changed $4,950,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $21,750 ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Rental Removed $21,750 ARMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed for Rent $21,750 ARMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listed $5,160,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-09-15 Price Changed $3,700,000 ARMLS
• 2021-07-07 Listed $3,850,000 ARMLS
• 2019-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2019-07-30 Listed $2,600,000 ARMLS
• 2018-06-01 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2017-11-22 Price Changed $2,625,000 ARMLS
• 2017-10-09 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-09-30 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-06-04 Price Changed $2,750,000 ARMLS
• 2017-02-06 Listed $2,925,000 ARMLS
• 2016-09-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2016-09-09 Price Changed $2,825,000 ARMLS
• 2016-04-01 Listed $2,850,000 ARMLS
• 2015-11-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2015-10-01 Price Changed $3,200,000 ARMLS
• 2015-06-02 Price Changed $3,490,000 ARMLS
• 2015-04-09 Price Changed $3,600,000 ARMLS
• 2014-11-05 Listed $3,875,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $18,025 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.