144 Parker Ln · McKinleyville, CA 95519

$238,300

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · Land public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1961 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Amazing opportunity in McKinleyville, CA. This home sits on a good size lot of approx. 25,289 square feet. It was built in 1961 and appears to have 1,230 interior square feet. At this price if you blink it will be SOLD. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

Key facts

• 0.58 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame and wood construction; Built in 1961; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Entry level: ground/level entry; Residential low density zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove heating; No central air
• Interior features: Wood stove heating; No cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.7% in McKinleyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,028 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Northern Humboldt Union High (town): math 32% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #529 of 1,400 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $209,363 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-34,455
• Equity at exit: $35,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-24,658
• Equity at exit: $20,604

Cash invested: $66,724 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95519

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,250
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,876/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $238,300

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $133	+0% $65	+5% $-2	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-17	+0% $65	+5% $148	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $126	base $65	+0.5pp $4	+1.0pp $-59

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,575
• Closing costs: $7,149
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $238,300 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $238,300 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,300 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,300 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,300 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,300 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $238,300 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,300 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $238,300 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $238,300 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $238,300 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $238,300 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $238,300 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $238,300 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $238,300 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $238,300 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $238,300 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $238,300 Active 110 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    price $238,300
20. 2026-04-02
    price $250,800
21. 2026-02-09
    listed $263,940 Active
22. 2025-05-21
    price $345,500
23. 2025-04-24
    price $363,600
24. 2025-03-25
    price $382,700
25. 2005-10-27
    soldstatus $310,000
26. 1999-09-17
    soldstatus $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,876 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 10 d/yr ≥73°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,349
• − Property taxes: −$2,876
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$6,932
• Taxable loss: −$3,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$779
• After-tax cash flow: $1,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern Humboldt Union High
• NCES district ID: 0603030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,832
• Composite: 42.3/100
• National rank: #6962
• State rank: #529 of 1400 in CA

Livability — McKinleyville

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1028
• US rank: #25015

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 18,728
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $73,280
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 730.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.83%
• Current HPI: 197.0133
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+127.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $238,300 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $250,800 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $263,940 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $345,500 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $363,600 San Francisco MLS
• 2025-03-25 Price Changed $382,700 San Francisco MLS
• 2005-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 1999-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,876 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.