17353 SE 76th Flintlock Ter · The Villages, FL 32162

$284,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,388 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 92 Days on market

Built 2003 5,663 sqft lot $205/sqft · 11% below area Est $321k · 11% under $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Must see this 2 bedroom, 2 full bath and 1.5 car garage Austin model located in the Village of Chatham. Conveniently located near the Publix shopping center & VA clinic off CR 42. Close to the newer First Responders Recreational Center & Nancy Lopez Country Club. Newer roof (2020), newer furnace & AC (2023), newer tankless gas water heater, newer washer & dryer, gutters & downspouts + large elevated back porch (18x13). Open floor plan concept w/ volume ceilings, ceramic tile & luxury vinyl flooring (no carpet) & knockdown ceiling texture. Updated kitchen w/ additional cabinets, pull-out drawers, Stainless Steel appliances, gas convection oven/range, newer refrigerator & Bosch dishwasher. Additional, oversized Florida Room (19x12). Large Master Bedroom w/ walk-in closet & master bathroom w/ walk-in shower. Low bond balance of $1782. Call today for your personal tour of this wonderful home.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Village of chatham
• Newer furnace

Tags

• VILLAGE OF CHATHAM
• NEAR PUBLIX SHOPPING CENTER
• NEAR VA CLINIC
• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEWER AC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $643 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $285k).
• Recommended offer: $259k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,634/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $80k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 92 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 92 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,041
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -11.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8076 SE 174th Belhaven Loop	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,383 (-0%)	10mo	$275,000	$199	72
17107 SE 78th Parlange Ter	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,359 (-2%)	6mo	$385,000	$283	72
17400 SE 77th Sycamore Ave	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,198 (-14%)	8mo	$239,000	$199	69
17640 SE 81st Timberwood Ter	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (+1%)	3mo	$355,000	$253	66
8078 SE 169th Tweedside Loop	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+1%)	8mo	$336,000	$240	61
17126 SE 78th Larchmont Ct	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,229 (-12%)	14mo	$352,000	$286	59
16925 SE 77th Northridge Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,490 (+7%)	6mo	$310,000	$208	55
17173 SE 79th Mclawren Ter	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,493 (+8%)	5mo	$249,900	$167	53
17112 SE 78th Parlange Ter	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+13%)	10mo	$309,000	$198	52
17395 SE 82nd Pecan Ter	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,202 (-13%)	0mo	$229,900	$191	49
17660 SE 81st Timberwood Ter	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,469 (+6%)	13mo	$375,000	$255	49
7808 SE 168th Lone Oak Loop	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,490 (+7%)	18mo	$299,500	$201	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,591
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $66,429
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,931/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,820

Max offer price $284,900

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7630 SE 174th Gaillard Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$4,500	$3.56	21d	1	0.13mi
17442 SE 79th Lovewood Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,500	$3.92	21d	1	0.19mi
17400 SE 82nd Roslyn Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1138	$4,700	$4.13	21d	1	0.51mi
17324 SE 82nd Pecan Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1358	$2,500	$1.84	21d	1	0.55mi
8544 SE 177th Bartram Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1265	$1,900	$1.50	21d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 92 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $284,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $284,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $284,900 Active 955-char remark

    Show marketing remark (955 chars)

    Must see this 2 bedroom, 2 full bath and 1.5 car garage Austin model located in the Village of Chatham. Conveniently located near the Publix shopping center & VA clinic off CR 42. Close to the newer First Responders Recreational Center & Nancy Lopez Country Club. Newer roof (2020), newer furnace & AC (2023), newer tankless gas water heater, newer washer & dryer, gutters & downspouts + large elevated back porch (18x13). Open floor plan concept w/ volume ceilings, ceramic tile & luxury vinyl flooring (no carpet) & knockdown ceiling texture. Updated kitchen w/ additional cabinets, pull-out drawers, Stainless Steel appliances, gas convection oven/range, newer refrigerator & Bosch dishwasher. Additional, oversized Florida Room (19x12). Large Master Bedroom w/ walk-in closet & master bathroom w/ walk-in shower. Low bond balance of $1782. Call today for your personal tour of this wonderful home.

17. 2025-11-15
    historical
18. 2025-10-10
    status Active
19. 2025-10-10
    price $284,900
20. 2025-10-08
    historical
21. 2025-09-19
    price $289,000
22. 2025-09-02
    status Active
23. 2025-08-31
    historical
24. 2025-08-08
    price $295,000
25. 2025-03-27
    price $319,000
26. 2025-03-26
    listed $219,000 Active
27. 2024-08-04
    historical
28. 2024-08-04
    historical
29. 2024-07-10
    listed $329,900 Active
30. 2024-07-10
    listed $329,900 Active
31. 2022-11-07
    soldstatus $282,500
32. 2022-10-27
    soldstatus $282,500 Closed
33. 2022-09-25
    status Pending
34. 2022-09-16
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,931 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,931
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,489
• − Management: −$3,489
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable income: $3,581
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$859
• After-tax cash flow: $6,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $284,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-04 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2024-07-10 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-10 Listed $329,900 HCAR
• 2022-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $282,500 Public Records
• 2022-10-27 Sold (MLS) $282,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-16 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,931 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.