14000 E 1730 Rd · Umber View Heights, MO 65785

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2000 1.33 ac lot $158/sqft · 13% below area Est $216k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a great opportunity! This is a stick built 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 1.33 acre just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. New upgrades have been done, including new roof, kitchen flooring, and a back deck. The owner has built a new 22' x 30' garage/shop with a concrete floor and electric. It has 2 roll up doors and a walk-through door.

Key facts

• New garage shop
• Electric
• Back deck

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• KITCHEN FLOORING
• BACK DECK
• NEW GARAGE SHOP
• CONCRETE FLOOR
• ELECTRIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (38.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $116k (38.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#95 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Stockton R-I (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #77 of 324 in MO (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,943 (38.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.99%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,330
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14000 E 1730 Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (0%)	0mo	$189,000	$158	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $88,846
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $272,473
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65785

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,159 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $791/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,438

Max offer price $150,164

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-113	-5% $-166	+0% $-220	+5% $-273	+10% $-327
Rent	-10% $-311	-5% $-266	+0% $-220	+5% $-174	+10% $-128
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-172	base $-220	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-319

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   What a great opportunity! This is a stick built 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 1.33 acre just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. New upgrades have been done, including new roof, kitchen flooring, and a back deck. The owner has built a new 22' x 30' garage/shop with a concrete floor and electric. It has 2 roll up doors and a walk-through door.

2. 2026-05-12
   price $189,000 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   What a great opportunity! This is a stick built 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 1.33 acre just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. New upgrades have been done, including new roof, kitchen flooring, and a back deck. The owner has built a new 22' x 30' garage/shop with a concrete floor and electric. It has 2 roll up doors and a walk-through door.

3. 2026-04-14
   listed $197,000 Active 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   What a great opportunity! This is a stick built 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 1.33 acre just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. New upgrades have been done, including new roof, kitchen flooring, and a back deck. The owner has built a new 22' x 30' garage/shop with a concrete floor and electric. It has 2 roll up doors and a walk-through door.

4. 2024-01-29
   soldstatus Closed 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   What a great opportunity! 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 2.8 acres just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. This place is priced to sell. Don't miss out. The Owner has put some tender loving care into the home with new carpet in the Living room and hallway. Outside a new retaining wall and gravel dress up the driveway. This home is in a great area!

5. 2023-12-01
   status Pending 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   What a great opportunity! 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 2.8 acres just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. This place is priced to sell. Don't miss out. The Owner has put some tender loving care into the home with new carpet in the Living room and hallway. Outside a new retaining wall and gravel dress up the driveway. This home is in a great area!

6. 2023-11-03
   price $139,000 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   What a great opportunity! 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 2.8 acres just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. This place is priced to sell. Don't miss out. The Owner has put some tender loving care into the home with new carpet in the Living room and hallway. Outside a new retaining wall and gravel dress up the driveway. This home is in a great area!

7. 2023-08-23
   listed $149,000 Active 488-char remark

   Show marketing remark (488 chars)

   What a great opportunity! 3-bedroom 2 bath home on 2.8 acres just outside of Stockton. You are about 3 miles to town or 2 miles to Stockton Lake. A 25,000-acre clear water lake with some of the best fishing in the state just right down the road. This place is priced to sell. Don't miss out. The Owner has put some tender loving care into the home with new carpet in the Living room and hallway. Outside a new retaining wall and gravel dress up the driveway. This home is in a great area!

8. 2021-01-19
   soldstatus
9. 2020-07-31
   soldstatus
10. 2020-07-31
    soldstatus
11. 2020-07-07
    listed $79,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $791 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,833 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,042/yr (+$87/mo · 131.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$791
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,113
• − Management: −$1,113
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$6,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton R-I
• NCES district ID: 2929520
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,609
• Composite: 39.32/100
• National rank: #3989
• State rank: #77 of 324 in MO

Livability — Umber View Heights

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #6413

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,538

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 293.8984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+137.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $189,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-14 Listed $197,000 SOMO
• 2024-01-29 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2023-12-01 Pending — SOMO
• 2023-11-03 Price Changed $139,000 SOMO
• 2023-08-23 Listed $149,000 SOMO
• 2021-01-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-07-07 Listed $79,500 SOMO

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $791 · +31.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.