1209 N Jefferson St N · Lexington, NE 68850

$143,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1947 6,970 sqft lot Est $206k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offering a practical layout with bright living areas and well-proportioned bedrooms. The property also features an addition at the back of the home that includes 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and a living room, providing extra space and flexibility. This is a great opportunity for both buyers and investors. Seller is offering a $1,000 concession toward the buyer’s closing costs. Listing agent has an ownership interest in the property.

Key facts

• Addition at the back
• Bright living areas
• Flexibility

Tags

• BRIGHT LIVING AREAS
• WELL-PROPORTIONED BEDROOMS
• ADDITION AT THE BACK
• EXTRA SPACE
• FLEXIBILITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Residential zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two main-level bathrooms
• Interior features: Main floor includes 2 bathrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($296/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.6% in Lexington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#112 in NE, #4,483 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lexington Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #106 of 111 in NE (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 61 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dawson County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $143k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,328 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,148
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 E 12th St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,675 (-0%)	2mo	$66,000	$39	88
1205 N Pierce St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,741 (+4%)	8mo	$190,000	$109	67
1112 N Fillmore St	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,529 (-9%)	11mo	$225,000	$147	58
1702 Hoover St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,719 (+3%)	10mo	$249,000	$145	57
503 N Fillmore St	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,624 (-3%)	12mo	$200,000	$123	55
504 W 20th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,713 (+2%)	1mo	$156,150	$91	54
509 N Fillmore St	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,798 (+7%)	7mo	$130,000	$72	52
120 Sunset Dr	0.70mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,710 (+2%)	2mo	$277,000	$162	52
504 E 5th St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-7%)	4mo	$150,000	$96	50
411 W 13th St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,784 (+6%)	16mo	$185,000	$104	46
1813 N Hoover St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,752 (+4%)	15mo	$249,900	$143	43
304 Apache Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,913 (+14%)	14mo	$282,000	$147	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-21,607
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-16,815
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68850

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,682/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $143,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $65	+0% $25	+5% $-16	+10% $-56
Rent	-10% $-73	-5% $-24	+0% $25	+5% $73	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $61	base $25	+0.5pp $-12	+1.0pp $-50

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 E 7th St Unit 14-1114 Lexington, NE	3.0	2.0	1360	$768	$0.56	44d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $143,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $143,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 New 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 New 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 463-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on marketlisting id $143,000 New 1 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $143,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $143,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 352-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    listed $143,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,682 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,474 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 47.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,799
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$1,682
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable loss: −$2,136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$513
• After-tax cash flow: $808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172810
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,799
• Composite: 26.54/100
• National rank: #7195
• State rank: #106 of 111 in NE

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #4483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, NE
• County: Dawson County · 12,428 people
• City population: 12,428
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• Population (ZIP): 12,428
• Household income: $69,238
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Dawson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,318 people
• By 2030: 22,912 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 22,097 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 21,358 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 19,801 · -15.1%
• By 2100: 17,647 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 23% Two or more races 18% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 35% English-only · Spanish 56% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dawson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.6) · D 24.7% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -49.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.6 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+41.8 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lexington, NE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

+472.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $143,000 GMNMLS
• 2013-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,682 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.