1601 Malvern St · Houston, TX 77009

$235,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 354 Days on market

Built 1943 5,000 sqft lot $175/sqft · 26% below area Est $318k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House is a tear down or remodeled. Great investor property. 3 bedroom and 1.5 bath

Key facts

• 5,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1943
• Listed 354 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $64 ($762/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 595 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 354 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1943 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 354 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1943 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,291
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -26.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5106 Hardy St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-0%)	11mo	$325,000	$242	67
1509 Moody St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-5%)	16mo	$129,000	$101	60
5009 Cochran St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+3%)	11mo	$469,000	$338	60
1013 Erin St Unit M	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+9%)	6mo	$304,990	$208	60
1013 Erin St Unit G	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	8mo	$299,990	$201	55
1013 Erin St Unit A	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	9mo	$329,990	$221	54
1013 Erin St Unit N	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	7mo	$299,990	$201	53
1310 Shelby St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+14%)	11mo	$409,900	$268	51
4102 Edison St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,243 (-8%)	13mo	$324,900	$261	45
1510 Tarley St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+9%)	10mo	$249,000	$170	43
918 Hillstar St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,513 (+13%)	16mo	$325,000	$215	43
5409 Gold St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+12%)	11mo	$310,000	$206	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-38,663
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-46,639
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77009

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$351 /mo · $4,206/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	44d	1	0.24mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	12d	1	0.38mi
914 Bunton St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,950	$1.40	44d	1	0.52mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	44d	1	0.62mi
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	44d	1	0.65mi
2706 Cochran St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1791	$2,700	$1.51	20d	1	0.92mi
4605 Fisk St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$3,000	$1.84	44d	1	1.15mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.25mi
1007 Archer St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,923	$1.91	2d	1	1.33mi
306 North St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.37mi
2623 Keene St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	965	$3,280	$3.40	17d	44	1.37mi
1209 Cordell St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$2,000	$2.02	3d	1	1.40mi
2310 N Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	997	$1,687	$1.69	44d	1	1.41mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 354 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 345 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 344 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Active 340 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 337 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 336 DOM
12. 2025-06-29
    listed $235,000 Active 82-char remark

    Show marketing remark (82 chars)

    House is a tear down or remodeled. Great investor property. 3 bedroom and 1.5 bath

13. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,206 · $351/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,206
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$3,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$750
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 35,769
• Household income: $83,148
• Rent vs Own: 42.4% rent · 57.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 994.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.57%
• Current HPI: 219.5037
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-29 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,206 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.