266 S Vista Dr · Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres, TX 78383

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1977 9,965 sqft lot $90/sqft · 39% below area Est $194k · 39% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some remodeling done: new paint, new carpet, bathrooms mostly updated. Kitchen, living room, dining area all open concept. Master bedroom is large enough to hold king-sized furniture and dressers. Master bedroom-patio doors open onto extensive back-covered porch which views native trees. Roomy shower in master bath, and hall bath has a deep tub. Mini-split units located in every room which cool and heat. Sun-room perfect for your plants and a peaceful meditation area. Super large garage has enough room for 2 cars+. Peaceful, quiet neighborhood awaiting the retiree or anyone that wants to get away from their hectic life. Call listing agent for any additional information.

Key facts

• New carpet
• Open concept
• New paint

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• BATHROOMS MOSTLY UPDATED
• ROOF IN GOOD CONDITION
• OPEN CONCEPT
• MASTER BEDROOM PATIO DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.8% in Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• George West ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Live Oak County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Live Oak County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.21%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,956
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -38.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
570 S Vista Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-11%)	19mo	$255,000	$216	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,911
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $18,765
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78383

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$240 /mo · $2,879/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 166 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 165 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 164 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 163 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    price $119,000 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Some remodeling done: new paint, new carpet, bathrooms mostly updated. Kitchen, living room, dining area all open concept. Master bedroom is large enough to hold king-sized furniture and dressers. Master bedroom-patio doors open onto extensive back-covered porch which views native trees. Roomy shower in master bath, and hall bath has a deep tub. Mini-split units located in every room which cool and heat. Sun-room perfect for your plants and a peaceful meditation area. Super large garage has enough room for 2 cars+. Peaceful, quiet neighborhood awaiting the retiree or anyone that wants to get away from their hectic life. Call listing agent for any additional information.

17. 2025-12-18
    listed $130,000 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Some remodeling done: new paint, new carpet, bathrooms mostly updated. Kitchen, living room, dining area all open concept. Master bedroom is large enough to hold king-sized furniture and dressers. Master bedroom-patio doors open onto extensive back-covered porch which views native trees. Roomy shower in master bath, and hall bath has a deep tub. Mini-split units located in every room which cool and heat. Sun-room perfect for your plants and a peaceful meditation area. Super large garage has enough room for 2 cars+. Peaceful, quiet neighborhood awaiting the retiree or anyone that wants to get away from their hectic life. Call listing agent for any additional information.

18. 2025-08-13
    price $150,000
19. 2025-07-08
    price $165,000
20. 2025-04-24
    price $170,000
21. 2025-03-14
    price $180,000
22. 2025-02-02
    listed $190,000 Active
23. 2024-07-11
    price $85,000
24. 2024-04-12
    listed $90,000 Active
25. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus
26. 2020-12-24
    historical
27. 2020-12-22
    soldstatus
28. 2020-12-21
    soldstatus Closed
29. 2020-11-21
    status Pending
30. 2020-06-22
    price $84,500
31. 2019-09-03
    price $124,900
32. 2019-07-19
    listed $150,000 Active
33. 2016-11-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,879 · $240/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,879 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,879
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$317
• After-tax cash flow: $2,753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: George West ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820550
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,721
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2175
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeshore Gardens-Hidden Acres

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,306

Population outlook (Live Oak County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,886 people
• By 2030: 14,793 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 16,633 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 18,511 · +33.3%
• By 2075: 23,859 · +71.8%
• By 2100: 26,396 · +90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Live Oak

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.9% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: -49.0pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+66.9 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+54.5 2008: R+49.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.06%
• Current HPI: 178.3727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $119,000 CBMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $130,000 CBMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $150,000 CBMLS
• 2025-07-08 Price Changed $165,000 CBMLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed $170,000 CBMLS
• 2025-03-14 Price Changed $180,000 CBMLS
• 2025-02-02 Listed $190,000 CBMLS
• 2024-07-11 Price Changed $85,000 CBMLS
• 2024-04-12 Listed $90,000 CBMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-24 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2020-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-21 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2020-11-21 Pending — CBMLS
• 2020-06-22 Price Changed $84,500 CBMLS
• 2019-09-03 Price Changed $124,900 CBMLS
• 2019-07-19 Listed $150,000 CBMLS
• 2016-11-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,879 · +812.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.