6456 Lakota Trl · Lino Lakes, MN 55014

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2006 1,742 sqft lot $188/sqft · 27% below area Est $395k · 27% under $309/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new turn-key home. Well maintained, sunny and bright, open concept end unit townhome! New Silestone countertops include breakfast bar in kitchen with newer SS appliances, new Pelican water system, vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace in LR with newly added blower, Patio off dining room, cordless pleated blinds on all windows with remote control on upper windows. Master BR boasts double closets with walk thru to updated bathroom, and a convenient upper-level laundry. This is a must see! Photos coming 05/26.

Key facts

• $309 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is free and clear (no mortgage recorded)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by CoAction Management; Monthly HOA fee of $309 covering hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic opener (2-car)
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Irregular-shaped lot; City street frontage with curbs, paved streets and sidewalks; private road access
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Stone and vinyl exterior; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level); Primary bedroom (upper level); Bedroom 2 (upper level); Bedroom 3 (upper level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level); 1 half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Indoor sprinkler system; Natural woodwork; Vaulted ceilings; Primary bedroom with walk-through layout; Breakfast area / eat-in kitchen / informal dining
• Laundry & utility: Upper-level laundry room; Washer and dryer hookups; Water softener (owned); Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-458 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (27.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Lino Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#287 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Centennial Public School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in MN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 144 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $209,002 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.77%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,515
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -26.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-75,998
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-103,147
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55014

• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,825/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$309
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,766

Max offer price $209,002

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-294	-5% $-376	+0% $-458	+5% $-540	+10% $-622
Rent	-10% $-631	-5% $-544	+0% $-458	+5% $-372	+10% $-285
Rate	-1.0pp $-312	-0.5pp $-384	base $-458	+0.5pp $-533	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6476 Lakota Trl Circle Pines, MN	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,159	$1.50	0d	1	0.04mi
6909 Lakeview Dr Circle Pines, MN	3.0	1.0	1253	$2,300	$1.84	21d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $309 · $3,708/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $289,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $289,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $289,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-17
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1411-char remark
5. 2026-05-14
   listed $289,900 Active 1411-char remark
6. 2026-04-27
   historical $289,900 1411-char remark
7. 2021-09-13
   soldstatus $240,000
8. 2021-06-25
   soldstatus $240,000 Sold 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Welcome to your new turn-key home. Well maintained, sunny and bright, open concept end unit townhome! New Silestone countertops include breakfast bar in kitchen with newer SS appliances, new Pelican water system, vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace in LR with newly added blower, Patio off dining room, cordless pleated blinds on all windows with remote control on upper windows. Master BR boasts double closets with walk thru to updated bathroom, and a convenient upper-level laundry. This is a must see! Photos coming 05/26.

9. 2021-05-29
   status Pending 522-char remark

   Show marketing remark (522 chars)

   Welcome to your new turn-key home. Well maintained, sunny and bright, open concept end unit townhome! New Silestone countertops include breakfast bar in kitchen with newer SS appliances, new Pelican water system, vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace in LR with newly added blower, Patio off dining room, cordless pleated blinds on all windows with remote control on upper windows. Master BR boasts double closets with walk thru to updated bathroom, and a convenient upper-level laundry. This is a must see! Photos coming 05/26.

10. 2021-05-24
    listed $234,900 Active 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Welcome to your new turn-key home. Well maintained, sunny and bright, open concept end unit townhome! New Silestone countertops include breakfast bar in kitchen with newer SS appliances, new Pelican water system, vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace in LR with newly added blower, Patio off dining room, cordless pleated blinds on all windows with remote control on upper windows. Master BR boasts double closets with walk thru to updated bathroom, and a convenient upper-level laundry. This is a must see! Photos coming 05/26.

11. 2021-05-20
    historical $234,900 522-char remark

    Show marketing remark (522 chars)

    Welcome to your new turn-key home. Well maintained, sunny and bright, open concept end unit townhome! New Silestone countertops include breakfast bar in kitchen with newer SS appliances, new Pelican water system, vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace in LR with newly added blower, Patio off dining room, cordless pleated blinds on all windows with remote control on upper windows. Master BR boasts double closets with walk thru to updated bathroom, and a convenient upper-level laundry. This is a must see! Photos coming 05/26.

12. 2018-08-08
    soldstatus $199,100
13. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $199,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Lovely updated end unit with private patio. 3 Bdr 2 bath. 2 car garage. 2 story living room with gas fireplace. Kitchen has new stainless steel appliances & new kitchen faucet. Fresh paint & newer carpet. Main floor - all vinyl wood flooring. 3 bdr unit - hard to find! Centennial Schools.

14. 2018-06-21
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Lovely updated end unit with private patio. 3 Bdr 2 bath. 2 car garage. 2 story living room with gas fireplace. Kitchen has new stainless steel appliances & new kitchen faucet. Fresh paint & newer carpet. Main floor - all vinyl wood flooring. 3 bdr unit - hard to find! Centennial Schools.

15. 2018-06-07
    historical Contingent - Other

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Lovely updated end unit with private patio. 3 Bdr 2 bath. 2 car garage. 2 story living room with gas fireplace. Kitchen has new stainless steel appliances & new kitchen faucet. Fresh paint & newer carpet. Main floor - all vinyl wood flooring. 3 bdr unit - hard to find! Centennial Schools.

16. 2018-06-05
    listed $199,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Lovely updated end unit with private patio. 3 Bdr 2 bath. 2 car garage. 2 story living room with gas fireplace. Kitchen has new stainless steel appliances & new kitchen faucet. Fresh paint & newer carpet. Main floor - all vinyl wood flooring. 3 bdr unit - hard to find! Centennial Schools.

17. 2012-01-26
    soldstatus $103,000
18. 2011-12-19
    soldstatus $103,000
19. 2011-12-07
    historical
20. 2011-09-20
    listed $101,000
21. 2010-02-11
    historical
22. 2009-08-31
    listed $134,900
23. 2006-10-06
    soldstatus $184,000
24. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus $6,618,031

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,036 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$211/yr (+$18/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,825
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,099
• − Management: −$2,099
• − HOA: −$3,708
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$10,613
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centennial Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2708100
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $84,468
• Composite: 54.78/100
• National rank: #1316
• State rank: #26 of 301 in MN

Livability — Lino Lakes

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #6259

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lino Lakes, MN
• County: Anoka County · 277,116 people
• City population: 28,975
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 29,047
• Household income: $103,658
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 473.0

Population outlook (Anoka County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 375,223 people
• By 2030: 387,850 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 407,239 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 417,541 · +11.3%
• By 2075: 448,447 · +19.5%
• By 2100: 464,954 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 4% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anoka

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.0% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+9.7 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.50%
• Current HPI: 242.8272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-95.6% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-25 Sold (MLS) $240,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-24 Listed $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-20 Coming Soon $234,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $199,100 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-07 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-05 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-19 Sold (MLS) $103,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-20 Listed $101,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-31 Listed $134,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-06 Sold (MLS) $184,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $6,618,031 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,825 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.