18902 Nicklaus Dr · Point Venture, TX 78645

$230,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,152 sqft · Townhouse public records · 199 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 897 sqft lot $200/sqft · 24% below area Est $303k · 24% under $233/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully maintained, gently lived-in two-story townhome is ideally located within walking distance of Lake Travis and the Point Venture 9-hole golf course, is now offered below tax-assessed value! The thoughtfully designed main level features an inviting eat-in kitchen with granite countertops, custom cabinetry, stainless steel double sinks, and a breakfast bar that flows seamlessly into the dining and living areas; creating an open, comfortable space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. A convenient half bath and laundry area complete the first floor. Step outside to the covered patio overlooking one of the scenic holes of the Point Venture Golf Course, where you can relax while enjoying tranquil views, birdwatching, and frequent visits from local deer. Upstairs, the spacious primary bedroom connects to the second bedroom through a pass-through bath. The second bedroom offers beautiful golf course views and access to its own covered balcony—perfect for enjoying peaceful mornings or quiet evenings overlooking the golf course. This lovely lakeside community provides: Olympic sized swimming pool and state of the art exercise equipment/fitness room overlooking Lake Travis. Within walking distance are community parks, tennis courts, pickelball court, disk golf, boat ramp, boating/jet ski rentals, Captain Pete's Floating Restaurant and much more!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Covered patio
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL DOUBLE SINKS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-566 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $130k (43.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.4% in Point Venture — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#509 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lago Vista ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #269 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lago Vista El (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 502 students, 34% FRL); Lago Vista Middle (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 433 students, 25% FRL); Lago Vista H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 636 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1388 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,070 (43.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.54%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,768
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18904 Nicklaus Dr	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,188 (+3%)	8mo	$230,000	$194	88
18802 Nicklaus Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,153 (+0%)	15mo	$278,950	$242	76
18804 Nicklaus Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,153 (+0%)	17mo	$279,000	$242	75
505 Demarett Dr #12	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,398 (+21%)	5mo	$119,900	$86	67
508 Palmer Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	25mo	$269,000	$216	56
512 Palmer Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	25mo	$269,000	$216	56
508 Palmer Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,244 (+8%)	25mo	$269,000	$216	55
204 Summit Ridge Dr N	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,183 (+3%)	19mo	$295,750	$250	46
18631 Champions Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,315 (+14%)	12mo	$215,000	$163	44
18611 Staghorn Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,381 (+20%)	5mo	$275,000	$199	40
18604 Buckhorn Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (+9%)	21mo	$259,900	$207	33
414 Summit Ridge Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,265 (+10%)	15mo	$289,900	$229	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-73,012
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -45.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-108,806
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $243,500 ($200/sqft)
• Median days on market: 221 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78645

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1388
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,906 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$537 /mo · $6,440/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$233
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-566

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $130,070

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-435	-5% $-501	+0% $-566	+5% $-631	+10% $-696
Rent	-10% $-716	-5% $-641	+0% $-566	+5% $-490	+10% $-415
Rate	-1.0pp $-450	-0.5pp $-507	base $-566	+0.5pp $-625	+1.0pp $-686

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18814 Nicklaus Dr Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.5	1334	$1,800	$1.35	43d	1	0.02mi
18803 Hogan Cir Unit 4 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	1.5	1156	$1,750	$1.51	10d	1	0.14mi
414 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1244	$1,825	$1.47	139d	1	0.75mi
430 Summit Ridge Dr N Lago Vista, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,895	$1.49	94d	1	0.81mi
1101 Ivean Pearson Rd Unit 203 Lago Vista, TX	2.0	2.5	1422	$2,400	$1.69	10d	1	1.26mi
1 Madrone Estates CV Lakeway, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1114	$1,694	$1.52	0d	53	1.26mi

HOA detail $233/mo · $2,796/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $230,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $230,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $230,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $230,000 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $230,000 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 193 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $230,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $230,000 Active 189 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $230,000 Active 188 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $230,000 Active 187 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 186 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 180 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 179 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 178 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 175 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 174 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $230,000 Active 173 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $230,000 Active 172 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $230,000 Active 171 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $230,000 Active 169 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $230,000 Active 168 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $230,000 Active 167 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $230,000 Active 166 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $230,000 Active 165 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $230,000 Active 164 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $230,000 Active 163 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $230,000 Active 162 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $230,000 Active 161 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $230,000 Active 160 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $230,000 Active 159 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $230,000 Active 158 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $230,000 Active 157 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $230,000 Active 155 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $230,000 Active 154 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $230,000 Active 153 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $230,000 Active 152 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $230,000 Active 150 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 149 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $230,000 Active 148 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 147 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 143 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $230,000 Active 142 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $230,000 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $230,000 Active 139 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $230,000 Active 137 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $230,000 Active 136 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,440 · $537/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,440 · $537/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$6,440
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,830
• − Management: −$1,830
• − HOA: −$2,796
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$10,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,579
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, two-story townhome is located within walking distance of Lake Travis and the Point Venture 9-hole golf course. It features an open kitchen, a half bath, and a covered patio overlooking the golf course.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fan — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 42/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lago Vista El F TX #1,545/4,322 Nat'l #19,648/41,679 Middle Lago Vista Middle F TX #736/1,662 Nat'l #6,708/14,009 High Lago Vista H S D TX #509/1,632 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lago Vista ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826400
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,671
• Composite: 38.35/100
• National rank: #4216
• State rank: #269 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Point Venture

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Venture, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,545,133 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,256
• Household income: $113,008
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.02%
• Current HPI: 211.9678
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $230,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-08-14 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $6,440 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.