156 Old Bridge Lk · Houston, TX 77069

$209,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,255 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1977 3,637 sqft lot $93/sqft · 15% below area Est $245k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover this elegant two-story patio residence in the gated Old Bridge Lake community. The interior features a formal dining room, a cozy breakfast nook, and a dedicated laundry room. The living area is centered around a gas fireplace, while the kitchen offers a built-in stovetop and oven. Outside, enjoy private front and back entry patios. Community amenities include a pool, lake, tennis courts, clubhouse, and park. Recent updates include a 2024 electrical system, 2025 roof, and 2025 central HVAC. Experience comfort and recreation in this exclusive Houston enclave.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Cozy breakfast nook
• Formal dining room

Tags

• TWO STORY PATIO RESIDENCE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1977; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot with other/unspecified features

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen (approx. 14x16)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11x11); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 8 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($295/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (0.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenwood Forest El (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 672 students, 75% FRL); Wunderlich Int (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 1,316 students, 77% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 37% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($203k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $209k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,156
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: -14.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14205 Cashel Forest Dr	0.25mi	3/3.0	2,268 (+1%)	2mo	$299,900	$132	84
4731 N Cashel Cir	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,222 (-2%)	0mo	$249,000	$112	82
14041 Cashel Forest Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	2,222 (-2%)	3mo	$225,000	$101	80
4726 Cashel Castle Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,250 (-0%)	1mo	$135,200	$60	78
4714 Cashel Castle Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	2,362 (+5%)	1mo	$249,900	$106	76
4734 Cashel Glen Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,120 (-6%)	6mo	$265,000	$125	72
4422 Windmill Run Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	2,432 (+8%)	1mo	$299,900	$123	56
4611 Prairie Chase Dr	0.48mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,064 (-8%)	4mo	$279,990	$136	54
14522 Overland Hollow Dr	0.57mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,128 (-6%)	5mo	$299,900	$141	53
4613 Cashel Glen Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,010 (-11%)	5mo	$235,000	$117	52
5810 Olympia Fields Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	2,492 (+10%)	2mo	$339,999	$136	46
4703 San Bernadino St	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,500 (+11%)	4mo	$285,000	$114	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.09% appreciation · 3.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,762
• Equity at exit: $49,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $11,504
• Equity at exit: $51,185

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77069

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,205/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,047

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $143	-5% $84	+0% $25	+5% $-35	+10% $-94
Rent	-10% $-140	-5% $-57	+0% $25	+5% $107	+10% $189
Rate	-1.0pp $130	-0.5pp $78	base $25	+0.5pp $-30	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4703 Cashel Cir Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,950	$1.13	19d	1	0.45mi
4622 Falling Sun Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2485	$2,500	$1.01	44d	1	0.50mi
4807 Wellington Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2876	$2,500	$0.87	44d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $219,900 Active 573-char remark
15. 2026-04-29
    historical
16. 2026-04-27
    price $219,900
17. 2026-04-16
    price $229,900
18. 2026-03-27
    price $239,900
19. 2026-03-04
    price $249,900
20. 2026-02-26
    price $259,900
21. 2026-02-25
    listed $274,900 Active
22. 2004-03-01
    soldstatus
23. 2003-04-24
    historical
24. 2002-11-25
    listed $134,500
25. 1999-06-25
    soldstatus
26. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,205 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,205 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,934
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$5,205
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$3,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$742
• After-tax cash flow: $1,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,608
• Household income: $80,257
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.09%
• Current HPI: 201.0894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $209,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2004-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2002-11-25 Listed $134,500 HARMLS
• 1999-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,205 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.