808 Circle Way Unit 26H · Sonterra, TX 76537

$238,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,723 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2019 Good condition 4,399 sqft lot Garage $139/sqft · 12% below area Est $271k · 12% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2019, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in the Sonterra community offers a functional layout and practical updates at an affordable price point. The open-concept main floor includes a spacious living area, dining space, and kitchen with quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a newly added pantry (2025) for extra storage. A dishwasher replaced in 2025 adds convenience for daily living, and a convenient half bath on the main level adds functionality for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath with tub/shower combo, while three additional bedrooms and a full bath provide flexible space for guests, work-from-home needs, or growing households.

Key facts

• Newly added pantry
• Convenient half bath
• New garage door

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEWLY ADDED PANTRY
• CONVENIENT HALF BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM LOCATED UPSTAIRS
• NEW GARAGE DOOR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $239k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $215k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Sonterra — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 915 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,056 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.92%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $270,882
• List price: $238,900
• Delta: -11.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Circle Way Unit 13E	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,762 (+2%)	3mo	$215,000	$122	74
116 Cosmos Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,913 (+11%)	2mo	$249,990	$131	67
464 Josey Wales Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,624 (-6%)	3mo	$283,900	$175	60
100 Robertson Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,645 (-4%)	2mo	$244,900	$149	58
468 Josey Wales Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	1mo	$272,900	$184	49
152 Josey Wales Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,935 (+12%)	3mo	$204,900	$106	45
120 Outlaw Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	3mo	$278,900	$188	43
429 Stone Water Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,515 (-12%)	2mo	$249,900	$165	42
265 Escape Way	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,531 (-11%)	4mo	$268,990	$176	41
329 Enforcer Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	2mo	$268,190	$176	41
105 Plata Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-14%)	1mo	$249,900	$168	38
360 Enforcer Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-12%)	4mo	$234,891	$154	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-54,689
• Equity at exit: $35,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-82,632
• Equity at exit: $20,656

Cash invested: $66,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 28 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $265,495 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 156 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 915
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,584/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $215,337

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-80	+0% $-163	+5% $-245	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-315	-5% $-239	+0% $-163	+5% $-87	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-43	-0.5pp $-102	base $-163	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,725
• Closing costs: $7,167
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,600	$1.25	41d	1	0.08mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	64d	1	0.09mi
2131 County Road 314 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,000	$1.20	16d	1	0.12mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	73d	1	0.14mi
344 Circle Way Unit 35E Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,575	$1.13	20d	1	0.19mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	60d	1	0.20mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	67d	1	0.22mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	18d	1	0.24mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	53d	1	0.25mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	69d	1	0.25mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,695	$0.92	27d	1	0.26mi
636 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	28d	1	0.29mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	93d	1	0.31mi
116 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$2,500	$1.30	18d	1	0.32mi
617 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,795	$1.07	17d	1	0.34mi
224 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1133	$1,475	$1.30	69d	1	0.38mi
128 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,500	$1.04	31d	1	0.41mi
112 Dollars Dr Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,745	$0.89	93d	1	0.42mi
140 Amber Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,749	$1.10	67d	1	0.45mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	93d	1	0.46mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	73d	1	0.46mi
417 Sapphire Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$1,499	$0.98	73d	1	0.49mi
195 Outlaw Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$1,799	$1.14	93d	1	0.49mi
140 Calcite Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,650	$1.18	73d	1	0.50mi
465 Unforgiven Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,750	$1.14	67d	1	0.53mi
420 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	53d	1	0.53mi
316 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1909	$1,800	$0.94	41d	1	0.54mi
317 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,650	$1.49	31d	1	0.55mi
125 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,795	$1.02	40d	1	0.57mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	52d	1	0.57mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	53d	1	0.57mi
140 Drifter Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1623	$1,840	$1.13	27d	1	0.58mi
120 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$1,875	$0.98	73d	1	0.58mi
236 Moonstone Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,450	$1.31	18d	1	0.59mi
137 Hematite Ln Unit 1 Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,650	$1.25	27d	1	0.62mi
400 Captain Grumbles Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,550	$1.06	73d	1	0.63mi
400 Major Lee Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,600	$1.28	38d	1	0.63mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	22d	1	0.64mi
157 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,725	$1.09	29d	1	0.64mi
233 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1926	$1,800	$0.93	20d	1	0.64mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Sonterra West Condominium Association One)Annual association fee of $445Association fee includes structure maintenanceCommunity features: clubhouse, playground, community pool, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesGarage faces frontGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available and on propertyPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2-story propertyFaces southeastResale propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Frame and glass construction with vertical sidingComposition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencing with gate (wood)Sprinkler system in front and rear (automatic, in-ground)Concrete, paved road accessCommunity in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRangeMicrowaveDisposalVented exhaust fanSome electric appliancesElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the upper levelUpper level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomDouble vanity in bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanCeiling fan(s)Recessed lightingDouble pane windowsDouble vanityTub with showerPull-down attic stairsUpper level primary bedroomBreakfast barEat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSolid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupInside laundry closet on upper level

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-26
   days on market $238,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-24
   days on market $238,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-22
   days on market $238,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $238,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $238,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-05-03
   listed $238,900 Active 1241-char remark
7. 2026-03-09
   listed $238,900 Active 1241-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,382
• − Property taxes: −$3,584
• − Insurance: −$1,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,853
• − Management: −$1,853
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$6,950
• Taxable loss: −$6,094
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,463
• After-tax cash flow: $-492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,615–$25,845 screening

This 2019-built home in Sonterra offers a good condition with recent updates and a good curb appeal, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonterra, TX
• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Sonterra West Condominium Association One)Annual association fee of $445Association fee includes structure maintenanceCommunity features: clubhouse, playground, community pool, curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spacesGarage faces frontGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available and on propertyPublic waterPublic sewer
• Home design: 2-story propertyFaces southeastResale propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Frame and glass construction with vertical sidingComposition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patioPorchPrivate yardBack yard fencing with gate (wood)Sprinkler system in front and rear (automatic, in-ground)Concrete, paved road accessCommunity in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeRangeMicrowaveDisposalVented exhaust fanSome electric appliancesElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the upper levelUpper level primary bedroom
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroomDouble vanity in bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplanCeiling fan(s)Recessed lightingDouble pane windowsDouble vanityTub with showerPull-down attic stairsUpper level primary bedroomBreakfast barEat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboSolid surface counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupInside laundry closet on upper level

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $238,900 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2023-08-22 Listed — Unlock MLS