4106 W Muhammad Ali Blvd · Louisville, KY 40212

$68,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1938 5,097 sqft lot Est $115k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention investors who are looking for a project! A lot of opportunity here with 2 first floor bedrooms and a third bedroom on the second floor. There's a full bathroom on the first floor and another in the basement. With over 1300 square feet of finished area, this home has A LOT of potential! With a detached, two car garage. .. this one checks all the boxes. (This is an estate with guardianships. Mental Health Court approval is required; closing shall only occur 30 days (or more) after the Court Order is entered. )

Key facts

• 5,097 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 17.4% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($36k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($470 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.53%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,912
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4149 W Muhammad Ali Blvd	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,327 (-3%)	3mo	$88,000	$66	84
237 Glendora Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,436 (+5%)	2mo	$186,250	$130	74
238 S 41st St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+6%)	8mo	$119,900	$83	70
622 S 42nd St	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,267 (-7%)	3mo	$100,000	$79	68
4109 River Park Dr	0.13mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,540 (+13%)	9mo	$130,000	$84	60
739 S 38th St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,373 (+0%)	9mo	$125,000	$91	58
431 Amy Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,223 (-11%)	5mo	$80,000	$65	56
634 S 38th St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+10%)	5mo	$165,000	$110	56
633 S 36th St	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,478 (+8%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	49
220 N 39th St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,240 (-9%)	4mo	$145,000	$117	48
121 N Shawnee Ter	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,458 (+7%)	9mo	$80,000	$55	45
127 N 39th St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,197 (-12%)	8mo	$80,000	$67	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $73,781
• Equity at exit: $61,260

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.45×
• Total profit: $180,004
• Equity at exit: $132,109

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $167/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $505

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $666	-5% $646	+0% $627	+5% $608	+10% $589
Rent	-10% $525	-5% $576	+0% $627	+5% $678	+10% $730
Rate	-1.0pp $661	-0.5pp $644	base $627	+0.5pp $610	+1.0pp $592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4129 W Muhammad Ali Blvd Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,500	$1.23	2d	1	0.07mi
302 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	984	$1,025	$1.04	16d	1	0.18mi
3922 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1800	$1,195	$0.66	12d	1	0.21mi
247 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,305	$1.20	19d	1	0.22mi
3819 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1108	$1,090	$0.98	21d	1	0.27mi
628 S 39th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1448	$1,220	$0.84	16d	1	0.32mi
644 S 40th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	3d	1	0.35mi
627 S 38th St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,349	$1.04	16d	1	0.37mi
110 Hansbrough Pl Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	924	$1,080	$1.17	24d	1	0.45mi
663 S 43rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	1736	$1,250	$0.72	24d	1	0.45mi
106 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,220	$0.92	4d	1	0.51mi
652 S 37th St #9 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1070	$1,095	$1.02	24d	1	0.51mi
127 N 40th St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,570	$1.05	4d	1	0.56mi
112 S 46th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	902	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.57mi
715 S 41st St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	11d	1	0.59mi
714 S 40th St #2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.59mi
722 S 40th St Unit NA Louisville, KY	4.0	2.5	1556	$1,700	$1.09	4d	1	0.61mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	0.61mi
714 S 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	16d	1	0.62mi
313 N 42nd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	4d	1	0.65mi
803 Cecil Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1165	$1,449	$1.24	11d	1	0.69mi
3901 Jewell Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,140	$1.07	21d	1	0.75mi
836 S 41st St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	19d	1	0.76mi
823 S 38th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,195	$1.09	4d	1	0.78mi
803 S 35th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1486	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	0.87mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	16d	1	0.87mi
737 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1356	$1,595	$1.18	24d	1	0.92mi
814 S 33rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,350	$1.22	4d	1	0.96mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	12d	1	1.09mi
4221 Sunset Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,199	$1.12	24d	1	1.09mi
820 Hazel St Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,395	$0.75	3d	1	1.10mi
3514 Grand Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1450	$1,295	$0.89	22d	1	1.19mi
3122 W Kentucky St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,150	$1.12	24d	1	1.23mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	4d	1	1.25mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	16d	1	1.26mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	17d	1	1.29mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	24d	1	1.29mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	24d	1	1.29mi
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	1.31mi
1145 Louis Coleman Jr Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	913	$875	$0.96	24d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $68,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $167 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $585 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$418/yr (+$35/mo · 250.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$167
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $6,797
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,631
• After-tax cash flow: $5,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $68,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $167 · -79.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.