200 Gabriels Run · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$290,700

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 4,791 sqft lot 2-car garage $157/sqft · 33% below area Est $435k · 33% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

5% lender incentive offered with the use of the seller's in-house lender! Incentive may be used towards buyer closing costs and/or rate buy-down, subject to lender approval and buyer qualification. The Dowing- This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $291k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $73 ($873/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1181 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $267,177 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.07%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,168
• List price: $290,700
• Delta: -33.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Lilli's Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,901 (+3%)	7mo	$370,950	$195	77
130 Lilli's Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,901 (+3%)	7mo	$370,950	$195	77
100 Ellendale Pl	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,667 (-10%)	9mo	$314,999	$189	76
309 W College St	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,808 (-2%)	2mo	$445,000	$246	70
118 Lilli's Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,703 (-8%)	9mo	$362,950	$213	67
404 Cora St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-5%)	15mo	$850,000	$482	60
122 Lilli's Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-11%)	8mo	$349,950	$212	58
502 Saint Marys St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,914 (+4%)	13mo	$625,000	$327	54
108 W Morse St	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,820 (-2%)	23mo	$840,000	$462	44
611 N Adams St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-14%)	6mo	$544,900	$341	44
513 W College St	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,078 (+12%)	14mo	$529,000	$255	34
610 N Bowie	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,044 (+10%)	15mo	$375,000	$183	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-42,415
• Equity at exit: $43,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-30,733
• Equity at exit: $25,134

Cash invested: $81,396 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 53 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 63.6 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $664,125 ($379/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -37.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 1181
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,672 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$363 /mo · $4,360/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $290,700

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $274	-5% $173	+0% $73	+5% $-28	+10% $-128
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-33	+0% $73	+5% $178	+10% $284
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $147	base $73	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,675
• Closing costs: $8,721
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	0d	9	0.38mi
605 W Schubert St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.5	2243	$3,500	$1.56	88d	1	0.62mi
112 W Hackberry St Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	3.0	2527	$3,000	$1.19	29d	1	0.69mi
112 N Acorn St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2211	$3,800	$1.72	88d	1	0.69mi
311 W Burbank St Fredericksburg, TX	4.0	2.0	1512	$1,900	$1.26	0d	1	0.74mi
803 N Bowie St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1990	$3,000	$1.51	29d	1	0.80mi
505 Mooney Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,450	$1.41	88d	1	0.82mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	119d	1	0.86mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	93d	1	0.87mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	119d	1	0.87mi
328 Glenmoor Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1457	$2,100	$1.44	43d	1	1.02mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	139d	1	1.07mi
1018 Avenue B Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,300	$1.33	2d	1	1.11mi
810 Apple St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.18mi
810 Apple St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,850	$1.48	24d	1	1.18mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,500	$1.87	29d	1	1.19mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	139d	1	1.19mi
409 S Pear St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2326	$2,500	$1.07	100d	1	1.24mi
607 S Columbus St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,995	$1.50	10d	1	1.25mi
108 E Lower Crabapple Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$1,920	$2.04	0d	19	1.25mi
605 Paintbrush Hollow St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,495	$1.55	119d	1	1.26mi
703 Dawn Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,300	$1.76	0d	1	1.29mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	100d	1	1.34mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	139d	1	1.39mi
712 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,650	$1.75	113d	1	1.39mi
713 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	139d	1	1.42mi
1705 Cherrywood Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,500	$1.40	107d	1	1.46mi
118 Riley Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$2,300	$1.17	62d	1	1.48mi
118 Riley Ln Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$2,200	$1.23	29d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water and sewerCity garbage serviceGas supplied by CentricElectricity supplied by CTEC
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding and cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Park/playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 10Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Primary bedroom: 16 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with 1 living areaBreakfast barUtility room insideLaundry room on main levelAll bedrooms on the lower levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room on main levelUtility room inside

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $290,700 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $290,700 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $290,700 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $290,700 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $290,700 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   statusdays on market $290,700 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $290,700 New 10 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $290,700 New 9 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $290,700 New 8 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $290,700 New 7 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $290,700 New 6 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $290,700 New 5 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $290,700 New 4 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    remarks 626-char remark
15. 2026-09-11
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $290,700 New 3 DOM
16. 2026-08-17
    statusdays on market $318,999 Pending 76 DOM
17. 2026-08-16
    days on market $318,999 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-08-15
    days on market $318,999 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-08-14
    days on market $318,999 Active 73 DOM
20. 2026-08-13
    days on market $318,999 Active 72 DOM
21. 2026-08-12
    days on market $318,999 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-08-11
    days on market $318,999 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-08-10
    days on market $318,999 Active 69 DOM
24. 2026-08-09
    days on market $318,999 Active 68 DOM
25. 2026-08-08
    days on market $318,999 Active 67 DOM
26. 2026-08-06
    days on market $318,999 Active 65 DOM
27. 2026-08-05
    days on market $318,999 Active 64 DOM
28. 2026-08-04
    days on market $318,999 Active 63 DOM
29. 2026-08-03
    statusdays on market $318,999 Active 62 DOM
30. 2026-07-31
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 59 DOM
31. 2026-07-30
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 57 DOM
32. 2026-07-28
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 56 DOM
33. 2026-07-26
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 54 DOM
34. 2026-07-24
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 52 DOM
35. 2026-07-23
    days on market $318,999 Price Change 51 DOM
36. 2026-07-22
    pricestatus $318,999 Price Change 50 DOM
37. 2026-07-22
    days on market $317,999 Active 50 DOM
38. 2026-07-21
    days on market $317,999 Active 49 DOM
39. 2026-07-20
    days on market $317,999 Active 48 DOM
40. 2026-07-18
    statusdays on market $317,999 Active 46 DOM
41. 2026-07-18
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 45 DOM
42. 2026-07-16
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 44 DOM
43. 2026-07-15
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 43 DOM
44. 2026-07-14
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 42 DOM
45. 2026-07-13
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 41 DOM
46. 2026-07-13
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 40 DOM
47. 2026-07-11
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 39 DOM
48. 2026-07-10
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 38 DOM
49. 2026-07-09
    days on market $317,999 Price Change 37 DOM
50. 2026-07-07
    price $317,999 Price Change 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,284
• − Property taxes: −$4,360
• − Insurance: −$1,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,565
• − Management: −$2,565
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,457
• Taxable loss: −$3,971
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$953
• After-tax cash flow: $1,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new single-story home is move-in ready with excellent condition and modern design, offering a great opportunity for investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fredericksburg El F TX #1,313/4,322 Nat'l #17,692/41,679 Middle Fredericksburg Middle C- TX #392/1,662 Nat'l #3,846/14,009 High Fredericksburg H S D- TX #643/1,632 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 28,213 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAHOA fee $87.50 paid quarterlyAssociation transfer fee $450

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water and sewerCity garbage serviceGas supplied by CentricElectricity supplied by CTEC
• Home design: New construction by LennarBrick, siding and cement fiber exterior
• Construction: Slab foundationComposition roof
• Exterior features: Pool (community)Park/playground (community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove/RangeDishwasherBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on lower level with walk-in closet and full bathBedroom 2: 10 x 10Bedroom 3: 10 x 10Bedroom 4: 12 x 11Primary bedroom: 16 x 12
• Flooring: CarpetingVinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsPrimary bath with shower only and single vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingElectric and natural gas heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floor plan with 1 living areaBreakfast barUtility room insideLaundry room on main levelAll bedrooms on the lower levelWalk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer connectionDryer connectionLaundry room on main levelUtility room inside

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $317,999 LERA