1200 Avenue A · Bay City, TX 77414

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1944 7,492 sqft lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $124k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect Starter home that does need some TLC, size of the home is larger than the taxes say it is as it's been added onto. Oversized eat in kitchen, home does have some updates to it. Nice corner lot with a dog run, lots of parking in the rear of the home and an outdoor BBQ pit.

Key facts

• New hvac system
• 7,492 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• ELECTRIC RANGE IN THE KITCHEN
• CONVENIENT BAY CITY LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1944; Pillar/post/pier and slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Fence; Corner lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Oven
• Bedrooms: 4 rooms total (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Gas cooling
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining combo; Seller disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roberts El (513 students, 82% FRL); Bay City J H (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 789 students, 77% FRL); Bay City H S (math 35% / reading 39%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,031 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 8471% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,382
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -3.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1201 Avenue C	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,163 (-0%)	12mo	$109,000	$94	82
1417 Avenue A	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,048 (-10%)	17mo	$120,000	$115	57
1104 Avenue D	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,021 (-12%)	22mo	$134,900	$132	47
1811 Camille Dr	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,217 (+5%)	10mo	$189,900	$156	42
908 Avenue I	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,050 (-10%)	12mo	$50,000	$48	41
1401 8th St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,030 (-12%)	10mo	$135,000	$131	37
202 County Road 402	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+10%)	13mo	$149,900	$117	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,633
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $7,580
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 626
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,309 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,301/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $197	+0% $163	+5% $129	+10% $95
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $112	+0% $163	+5% $215	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $224	-0.5pp $194	base $163	+0.5pp $132	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2206 Avenue L Unit L Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0	825	$1,075	$1.30	45d	1	1.10mi
2604 Avenue K Bay City, TX	2.0	2.0	963	$1,415	$1.47	45d	1	1.25mi
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $120,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-20
    listed $1,400
19. 2026-05-19
    listed $120,000 Active 671-char remark
20. 2026-05-18
    historical
21. 2026-04-18
    status Active
22. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
23. 2026-04-16
    status Pending
24. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
25. 2026-03-17
    status Pending
26. 2026-02-20
    price $120,000
27. 2026-02-04
    price $129,000
28. 2026-01-25
    listed $139,000 Active
29. 2025-08-29
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Perfect Starter home that does need some TLC, size of the home is larger than the taxes say it is as it's been added onto. Oversized eat in kitchen, home does have some updates to it. Nice corner lot with a dog run, lots of parking in the rear of the home and an outdoor BBQ pit.

30. 2025-07-22
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Perfect Starter home that does need some TLC, size of the home is larger than the taxes say it is as it's been added onto. Oversized eat in kitchen, home does have some updates to it. Nice corner lot with a dog run, lots of parking in the rear of the home and an outdoor BBQ pit.

31. 2025-03-21
    price $59,900

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Perfect Starter home that does need some TLC, size of the home is larger than the taxes say it is as it's been added onto. Oversized eat in kitchen, home does have some updates to it. Nice corner lot with a dog run, lots of parking in the rear of the home and an outdoor BBQ pit.

32. 2025-02-08
    listed $99,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    Perfect Starter home that does need some TLC, size of the home is larger than the taxes say it is as it's been added onto. Oversized eat in kitchen, home does have some updates to it. Nice corner lot with a dog run, lots of parking in the rear of the home and an outdoor BBQ pit.

33. 2024-08-20
    historical
34. 2024-06-12
    price $134,900
35. 2024-05-08
    status Active
36. 2024-05-08
    historical
37. 2024-05-08
    listed $150,000 Active
38. 2024-05-03
    historical
39. 2024-04-21
    price $150,000
40. 2024-03-23
    listed $155,000 Active
41. 2023-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,301 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,301 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,710
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,301
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,257
• − Management: −$1,257
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $83
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$20
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-08 Listed $99,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-12 Price Changed $134,900 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-21 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-23 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,301 · -4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.