7948 Hwy 224 · Weldon, AR 72112

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 2008

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

In need of TLC but very spacious manufactured home with 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. HUD Case #031-383286. Agents/purchasers refer to www. chronossolutions.com & HUDHomestore.com for info on buying and bidding on HUD homes. HUD-owned homes are sold AS-IS only. Agents - see hudhomestore.com for needed forms & documents. Property Condition Report & Disclosure Addendum is in Associated Docs.

Key facts

• Built 2008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-138/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $63k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#480 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Newport School District (town): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #194 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newport Elementary School (math 31% / reading 25%, grade F, #326 of 454 statewide, top 72%, 656 students, 51% FRL); Newport High School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #209 of 292 statewide, top 72%, 612 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 68% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,967 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.36%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $34,902
• Equity at exit: $58,557

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $103,822
• Equity at exit: $126,281

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72112

• Home prices YoY: 15.6%
• Active inventory: 40
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,005 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $130/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,019

Max offer price $62,967

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $7	+0% $-12	+5% $-104	+10% $-127
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-51	+0% $-12	+5% $28	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $5	base $-12	+0.5pp $-28	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2023-10-11
   soldstatus $60,000
2. 2023-07-10
   historical
3. 2022-03-23
   listed $65,000
4. 2016-11-21
   soldstatus $6,500 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   In need of TLC but very spacious manufactured home with 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. HUD Case #031-383286. Agents/purchasers refer to www. chronossolutions.com & HUDHomestore.com for info on buying and bidding on HUD homes. HUD-owned homes are sold AS-IS only. Agents - see hudhomestore.com for needed forms & documents. Property Condition Report & Disclosure Addendum is in Associated Docs.

5. 2016-05-05
   listed $11,880 412-char remark

   Show marketing remark (412 chars)

   In need of TLC but very spacious manufactured home with 3 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms. HUD Case #031-383286. Agents/purchasers refer to www. chronossolutions.com & HUDHomestore.com for info on buying and bidding on HUD homes. HUD-owned homes are sold AS-IS only. Agents - see hudhomestore.com for needed forms & documents. Property Condition Report & Disclosure Addendum is in Associated Docs.

6. 1999-12-01
   soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $130 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $416 · $35/mo
• Expected delta: +$286/yr (+$24/mo · 219.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 9% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$130
• − Insurance: −$5,444
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$965
• − Management: −$965
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable loss: −$977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $96/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newport School District
• NCES district ID: 0500023
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $29,425
• Composite: 19.67/100
• National rank: #8734
• State rank: #194 of 238 in AR

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #25563

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,092

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,368 people
• By 2030: 15,875 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 14,998 · -8.4%
• By 2050: 14,363 · -12.2%
• By 2075: 13,207 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,276 · -31.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.3pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.46%
• Current HPI: 203.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2023-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2023-07-10 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-03-23 Listed $65,000 CARMLS
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $6,500 NEABOR MLS
• 2016-05-05 Listed $11,880 NEABOR MLS
• 1999-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $130 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.