2775 Blue Mountain Rd · Shenandoah Farms, VA 22630

$239,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,668 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1959 5.96 ac lot Est $417k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

Key facts

• Private acres
• Wooded privacy
• Usable flat land

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• WOODED PRIVACY
• USABLE FLAT LAND
• ACCESS TO HIKING TRAILS
• TRANQUIL WOODED SURROUNDINGS
• SHORT-TERM RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Secure storage (exterior)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric hot water; Electric-powered heating and cooling
• Home design: Detached structure; Level entry to main level
• Construction: Concrete and vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Estimated effective remodel in 2011; Year built estimated
• Exterior features: Porch(es); Secure storage; Above-grade outdoor structures

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Double oven; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level; Additional listed rooms include multiple bedrooms (Master Bedroom, Bedroom 1–6 mentioned in room list)
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Energy Star heating system with electric fuel; Energy Star cooling system with electric fuel; Programmable thermostat; Zoned heating and cooling
• Interior features: Country-style kitchen with island; Dining area; Built-in cabinetry; Entry-level bedroom; Window treatments; Upgraded countertops; Wood floors; Flat ceilings; Atrium, insulated, and storm doors; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/Dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-790/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.8% in Shenandoah Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#440 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $172k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,267 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,000
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2775 Blue Mountain Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	1,668 (0%)	0mo	$215,000	$129	100
579 Joans Quadrangle Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (-15%)	1mo	$552,577	$389	48
111 Bloodroot Rd	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,574 (-6%)	5mo	$393,600	$250	42
323 Elinore Ln	0.33mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,888 (+13%)	15mo	$400,000	$212	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-33,329
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,931
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,058/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $228,264

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
316 Judy Ln Front Royal, VA	3.0	3.0	1255	$2,100	$1.67	44d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-20
   listed $239,900 Active
2. 2013-07-12
   soldstatus $172,200

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

3. 2013-07-12
   historical 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

4. 2013-07-11
   soldstatus $172,200 Sold 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

5. 2013-07-11
   soldstatus $172,200 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

6. 2013-03-25
   status Contingent (No Kick Out) 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

7. 2013-03-25
   historical 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

8. 2013-03-06
   listed $172,500 Active 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

9. 2013-03-05
   listed $172,500 420-char remark

   Show marketing remark (420 chars)

   Rightsize for the mountain. 6ac. Giant Master suite with sitting area, fireplace, & walkout to yard. Modern kitchen with highend SS appliances, new cabinets, & countertops, ready for entertaining. Pella windows & doors. Bathroom has dual sinks. Livingroom fireplace is huge, built from mt. stone. High effic. HV/AC with 3 zones. (remote controlled). new Vinylsdng & roof. Totally renovated in 2011.

10. 2012-12-01
    historical
11. 2012-12-01
    historical Expired
12. 2012-10-02
    price
13. 2012-08-14
    status Active
14. 2012-08-07
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
15. 2012-07-16
    listed Active
16. 2012-07-16
    listed $178,500
17. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $117,500
18. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $117,500 Sold
19. 2010-10-15
    soldstatus $117,500
20. 2010-09-20
    historical
21. 2010-08-03
    status Active
22. 2010-07-31
    historical Expired
23. 2010-04-01
    listed $147,000 Active
24. 2010-04-01
    listed $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,232
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$2,058
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,200
• After-tax cash flow: $409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Farms

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #440
• US rank: #18845

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Farms, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+63.2% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $239,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $172,200 Public Records
• 2013-07-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-07-11 Sold (MLS) $172,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-07-11 Sold (MLS) $172,200 MRIS
• 2013-03-25 Pending — MRIS
• 2013-03-25 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-03-06 Listed $172,500 MRIS
• 2013-03-05 Listed $172,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-12-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-12-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2012-10-02 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2012-08-14 Relisted — MRIS
• 2012-08-07 Pending — MRIS
• 2012-07-16 Listed — MRIS
• 2012-07-16 Listed $178,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $117,500 Public Records
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $117,500 MRIS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $117,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-09-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-08-03 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-07-31 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-01 Listed $147,000 MRIS
• 2010-04-01 Listed $147,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,058 · +18.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.