9865 Ahart Rd · Honcut, CA 95966

$111,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 858 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 343 Days on market

Built 1940 0.92 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

At just $111,500 this affordable investment opportunity in Oroville, CA is available to you! This home sits on a good-sized lot of approx. 40,075 sq. ft. Home appears to have approx. 858 sq. ft. At this price if you blink, it will be SOLD. Buyers check City, County, Zoning, Tax, and other records to their satisfaction. AS-IS SALE property.

Key facts

• 0.92 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family unit; Zoning: U
• HOA & community: Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Septic (type unknown); No water source listed
• Home design: Single-story house; No common walls
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle/composition roof; Built year source: Assessor
• Exterior features: Lot is level/flat; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One-level layout; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#1,440 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Palermo Union Elementary (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,149 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $771 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 343 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 343 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.88%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $9,904
• Equity at exit: $16,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $44,650
• Equity at exit: $9,640

Cash invested: $31,220 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,490 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$585
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,278/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $934

Max offer price $111,500

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,875
• Closing costs: $3,345
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $111,500 Active 343 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $111,500 Active 342 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $111,500 Active 341 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $111,500 Active 340 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $111,500 Active 339 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $111,500 Active 337 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $111,500 Active 336 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $111,500 Active 334 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $111,500 Active 333 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $111,500 Active 332 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $111,500 Active 331 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $112,100 Active 328 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,100 Active 326 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,100 Active 325 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,100 Active 324 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $112,100 Active 323 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $112,100
18. 2026-04-17
    price $112,700
19. 2026-03-11
    price $113,600
20. 2026-02-17
    price $114,600
21. 2026-01-29
    price $116,600
22. 2025-12-29
    price $119,500
23. 2025-12-11
    price $121,200
24. 2025-11-25
    price $123,200
25. 2025-11-07
    price $126,500
26. 2025-10-23
    price $131,900
27. 2025-10-06
    price $143,500
28. 2025-09-17
    price $155,000
29. 2025-09-02
    price $168,200
30. 2025-08-18
    price $188,900
31. 2025-07-29
    price $224,300
32. 2025-07-11
    listed $249,100 Active
33. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus $135,000
34. 2005-08-12
    soldstatus $195,000
35. 1985-08-12
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,246
• − Property taxes: −$1,278
• − Insurance: −$558
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,430
• − Management: −$1,430
• − Depreciation: −$3,244
• Taxable income: $3,691
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$886
• After-tax cash flow: $4,384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palermo Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629540
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $39,628
• Composite: 25.26/100
• National rank: #12903
• State rank: #1149 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Honcut

• Score: 35/100
• State rank: #1440
• US rank: #27741

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Honcut, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+138.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $112,100 CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $112,700 CRMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $113,600 CRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $114,600 CRMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $116,600 CRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Price Changed $119,500 CRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $121,200 CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $123,200 CRMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $126,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $131,900 CRMLS
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $143,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $155,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $168,200 CRMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $188,900 CRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $224,300 CRMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $249,100 CRMLS
• 2005-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1985-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,278 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.