204 Lawton Ave · Hereford, TX 79045

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

0.26 ac lot $73/sqft · 31% above area Est $73k · 31% over ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

Key facts

• Newer ac unit
• Livable condition
• Newer windows

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• LIVABLE CONDITION
• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER AC UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Hereford ISD (town): math 41% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #434 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 23 units permitted in Deaf Smith County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deaf Smith County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.64%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,748
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 30.59%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,324
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $31,433
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79045

• Home prices YoY: -11.2%
• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,290 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,884/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $879

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $95,000 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    status $95,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 60 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 59 DOM
19. 2026-05-07
    status Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

20. 2026-05-07
    price $95,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

21. 2026-04-22
    historical 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

22. 2026-04-03
    price $100,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

23. 2026-03-26
    price $105,000 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

24. 2026-03-17
    listed $110,000 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in Hereford! This home is in livable condition and ready for someone to bring their vision and updates. Per seller some updates have been done like newer windows and a newer AC unit, giving buyers a solid head start on renovations. Perfect for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to customize a home and build equity. With good bones and key updates already done, this property has strong potential. Priced to sell--don't miss this opportunity. .. Very Motivated Seller. ..

25. 2004-08-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,884 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,884
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,563
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$615
• After-tax cash flow: $3,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hereford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823010
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,593
• Composite: 33.49/100
• National rank: #5446
• State rank: #434 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hereford

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hereford, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,441

Population outlook (Deaf Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,019 people
• By 2030: 17,665 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 17,099 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 16,479 · -8.5%
• By 2075: 14,130 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 10,352 · -42.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 32% White 21% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 58%

Political lean MEDSL · Deaf Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.6) · D 23.8% · R 75.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -51.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.6 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+41.1 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.57%
• Current HPI: 225.7837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — AARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $95,000 AARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Delisted — AARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $100,000 AARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $105,000 AARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $110,000 AARMLS
• 2004-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,884 · +12.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.