Coronado III Plan · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$551,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,533 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Coronado III is the perfect plan to grow with your lifestyle-versatile, expansive, and designed to feel like home from the moment you walk in. Contact us today to schedule a tour!

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 177 days

🏗️ New construction. The $551,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $682,244.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $552k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $465k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $407k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $407k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 33d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,070/mo this rent would consume 86% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 24% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($486k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $407,025 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.42%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $682,244
• List price: $551,990
• Delta: -19.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34549 Alger Pt	0.18mi	5/4.0	3,531 (-0%)	0mo	$765,580	$217	87
34514 Alger Pt	0.19mi	5/4.0	3,531 (-0%)	3mo	$722,370	$205	84
1694 Drummond Pt	0.36mi	5/4.0	3,581 (+1%)	2mo	$705,000	$197	75
1715 Suttonset Trl	0.45mi	5/3.0	3,531 (-0%)	6mo	$603,900	$171	74
34053 Anchor Light Ln	0.43mi	5/4.5	3,461 (-2%)	2mo	$675,000	$195	68
1997 Drummond Pt	0.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,126 (-12%)	5mo	$685,950	$219	65
2436 Wise River Ln	0.34mi	5/4.0	3,270 (-7%)	6mo	$599,990	$183	63
34565 Alger Pt	0.19mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,126 (-12%)	4mo	$705,510	$226	62
34780 Lowery Trl	0.75mi	5/4.5	3,575 (+1%)	7mo	$634,880	$178	52
33843 Galley Way	0.70mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,502 (-1%)	7mo	$980,000	$280	51
2686 Yacht Pl	0.73mi	5/4.0	3,686 (+4%)	7mo	$889,900	$241	49
33825 Ocean Spray Ln	0.72mi	5/3.5	3,984 (+13%)	5mo	$927,500	$233	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-217,914
• Equity at exit: $101,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-358,568
• Equity at exit: $58,988

Cash invested: $191,028 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 101 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 31.9 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $728,900 ($210/sqft)
• Median days on market: 104 d
• This list price: 6% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -8.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,070 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,578
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$853 /mo · $10,234/yr
• Insurance: −$284
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $-1,499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,968

Max offer price $465,288

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,028	-5% $-1,264	+0% $-1,499	+5% $-1,735	+10% $-1,971
Rent	-10% $-1,821	-5% $-1,660	+0% $-1,499	+5% $-1,339	+10% $-1,178
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,156	-0.5pp $-1,326	base $-1,499	+0.5pp $-1,676	+1.0pp $-1,856

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $170,561
• Closing costs: $20,467
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1854 Longliner Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.0	3053	$4,500	$1.47	24d	1	0.54mi
35482 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	4.5	4218	$5,400	$1.28	27d	1	0.86mi
35436 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	6.0	4.0	4539	$5,400	$1.19	27d	1	0.87mi
35335 Big Hawk Dr Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	4.0	3138	$5,200	$1.66	120d	1	0.87mi
34772 Telluride Ln Zephyrhills, FL	4.0	2.0	2568	$2,395	$0.93	7d	1	1.00mi
33901 Landsman Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.5	2600	$4,950	$1.90	10d	1	1.07mi
33875 Castaway Loop Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	4.5	3509	$5,500	$1.57	44d	1	1.18mi
3240 Apfel Rd Wesley Chapel, FL	5.0	2.0	2800	$2,950	$1.05	117d	1	1.27mi
35694 Kinsey Pt Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,550	$1.04	69d	1	1.36mi
35710 Kinsey Pt Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,650	$1.08	32d	1	1.36mi
35518 Lockman Way Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,700	$1.04	24d	1	1.39mi
2639 Hardin Way Zephyrhills, FL	5.0	3.0	2453	$2,700	$1.10	59d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $551,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planLocated in Zephyrhills, FL
• Exterior features: Living area 3533

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Coronado III

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $551,990 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $551,990 Active 177 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $551,990 Active 176 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $551,990 Active 175 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $551,990 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $551,990 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $551,990 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $551,990 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $551,990 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $551,990 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $551,990 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $551,990 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $551,990 Active 159 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $551,990 Active 158 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $551,990 Active 157 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $551,990 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $551,990 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $551,990 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $551,990 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $551,990 Active 149 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $551,990 Active 148 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $551,990 Active 147 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $551,990 Active 146 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $551,990 Active 145 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $551,990 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $551,990 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $551,990 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $551,990 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $551,990 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $551,990 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $551,990 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $551,990 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $551,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $551,990 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $551,990 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $551,990 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $551,990 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $551,990 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $551,990 Active 128 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $551,990 Active 127 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $551,990 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $551,990 Active 123 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $551,990 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $551,990 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $551,990 Active 118 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $551,990 Active 116 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $551,990 Active 115 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $551,990 Active 114 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $551,990 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $551,990 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,216
• − Property taxes: −$10,234
• − Insurance: −$3,411
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,907
• − Management: −$3,907
• − Depreciation: −$19,847
• Taxable loss: −$30,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,363
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Coronado III home is in good condition with a fresh paint job and well-maintained exterior. It offers a spacious floorplan and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior shutters — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Add landscaping around the front entrance — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School F FL #1,697/2,144 Nat'l #22,904/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 24% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $551,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planLocated in Zephyrhills, FL
• Exterior features: Living area 3533

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Coronado III