1877 Jennings Way · Middleburg, FL
Flood risk No data
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- —
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk No data
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- —
Heat risk No data
- Hot days now (above threshold)
- —
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- —
Wind risk No data
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk No data
- Unhealthy air days now
- —
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- —
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +10.9/15.0
- Cash flow +10.5/30.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.3/5.0
- Livability +3.2/5.0
- 1% rule +3.1/10.0
- DSCR +3.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$245,490
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Enter through the covered porch into the foyer, where a powder bath and convenient access to the garage are located. Continue into the open-concept main level, featuring a kitchen that flows into the dining area and family room. A door connects the main living space to the rear patio, extending the home's usable area outdoors. Upstairs, a centrally located laundry room adds everyday functionality. The primary bedroom includes a private bath and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom. The layout is designed for comfort, efficiency, and flexibility to best fit your needs.
Key facts
- Covered porch
- Private bath
- Rear patio
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-127 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (7.5% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.0% below list).
- Recommended offer: $199k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
- Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Tynes Elementary School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 1,021 students, 43% FRL); Wilkinson Junior High School (math 54% / reading 49%, grade C, #232 of 571 statewide, top 41%, 752 students, 100% FRL); Middleburg High School (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #216 of 667 statewide, top 33%, 1,852 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 35% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.81% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.67%
- Cash-on-cash
- -2.21%
- DSCR
- 0.90
- GRM
- 10.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $265,834
- List price
- $245,490
- Delta
- -7.65%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1874 Jennings Way | 0.03mi | 3/2.5 | 1,404 (+2%) | 1mo | $229,990 | $164 | 92 |
| 1870 Jennings Way | 0.03mi | 3/2.5 | 1,404 (+2%) | 1mo | $229,990 | $164 | 92 |
| 1869 Jennings Way | 0.01mi | 3/2.5 | 1,403 (+2%) | 3mo | $244,990 | $175 | 91 |
| 1568 Jeremiah St | 0.75mi | 3/2.5 | 1,468 (+7%) | 9mo | $238,990 | $163 | 44 |
| 1576 Jeremiah St | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,468 (+7%) | 9mo | $245,990 | $168 | 44 |
| 1564 Jeremiah St | 0.75mi | 3/2.5 | 1,468 (+7%) | 9mo | $238,990 | $163 | 44 |
| 1580 Jeremiah St | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,468 (+7%) | 10mo | $271,000 | $185 | 43 |
| 1572 Jeremiah St | 0.74mi | 3/2.5 | 1,468 (+7%) | 11mo | $259,000 | $176 | 43 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -19.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.31×
- Total profit
- $-47,108
- Equity at exit
- $36,603
- IRR
- -11.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.30×
- Total profit
- $-48,376
- Equity at exit
- $21,225
Cash invested: $68,737 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 39 active · 24 under contract
- Months of supply
- 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $264,990 ($185/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 49 d
- This list price
- 13% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +4.9% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 32068
- Home prices YoY
- -27.5%
- Rents YoY
- 3.4%
- Active inventory
- 875
- Price-to-rent
- 10.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,987 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,287
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$307 /mo · $3,682/yr
- Insurance
- −$102
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$417
- Net cashflow
- $-127
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $43 | -5% $-42 | +0% $-127 | +5% $-211 | +10% $-296 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-284 | -5% $-205 | +0% $-127 | +5% $-48 | +10% $30 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-3 | -0.5pp $-64 | base $-127 | +0.5pp $-190 | +1.0pp $-255 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $61,372
- Closing costs
- $7,365
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 36 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3861 Baxley Villas Ct Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1604 | $1,835 | $1.14 | 8d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 1637 Ascend Ln Middleburg, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1171 | $2,259 | $1.93 | 58d | 12 | 0.78mi |
| 1503 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1468 | $1,800 | $1.23 | 10d | 1 | 0.81mi |
| 1469 Jeremiah St Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1468 | $2,000 | $1.36 | 119d | 1 | 0.84mi |
| 1854 Alberta Ct N Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1190 | $1,735 | $1.46 | 75d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 1834 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1266 | $1,695 | $1.34 | 64d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 1854 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1536 | $1,659 | $1.08 | 69d | 1 | 0.91mi |
| 1846 Manitoba Ct N Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1284 | $2,036 | $1.59 | 10d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 1862 Mackenzie Ct N Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1088 | $1,650 | $1.52 | 94d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 1371 Summerbrook Dr Middleburg, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1467 | $1,915 | $1.31 | 64d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 1871 Alberta Ct S Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1524 | $1,720 | $1.13 | 119d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1708 | $1,990 | $1.17 | 88d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 1809 Penzance Pkwy Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1709 | $1,990 | $1.16 | 81d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 1685 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1210 | $2,200 | $1.82 | 10d | 1 | 1.00mi |
| 1633 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1502 | $1,900 | $1.26 | 119d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1629 Bridger Trce Middleburg, FL | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1210 | $1,800 | $1.49 | 94d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1260 | $1,628 | $1.29 | 88d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1883 Mackenzie Ct S Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1260 | $1,654 | $1.31 | 94d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 1334 Camp Ridge Ln Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1545 | $2,175 | $1.41 | 119d | 1 | 1.12mi |
| 1804 Sherwood Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1206 | $1,685 | $1.40 | 10d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 1291 Sorrelwood Ct Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1797 | $1,950 | $1.09 | 1d | 1 | 1.22mi |
| 1811 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1312 | $1,650 | $1.26 | 8d | 1 | 1.24mi |
| 1706 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1792 | $2,030 | $1.13 | 64d | 1 | 1.25mi |
| 1867 Sheraton Lakes Cir Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1296 | $1,395 | $1.08 | 10d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 4013 White Bark Plantation Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1574 | $1,821 | $1.16 | 58d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 3615 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1854 | $1,945 | $1.05 | 74d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 3537 Whisper Creek Blvd Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1609 | $1,950 | $1.21 | 10d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 1793 Foggy Day Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1803 | $2,100 | $1.16 | 119d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 3640 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1178 | $1,665 | $1.41 | 88d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 2044 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1380 | $1,735 | $1.26 | 0d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 1976 Hunters Trace Cir Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1576 | $1,865 | $1.18 | 83d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 3413 Alec Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1312 | $1,711 | $1.30 | 116d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1729 | $1,950 | $1.13 | 10d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 1897 High Prairie Ln Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1729 | $1,950 | $1.13 | 5d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 1568 Backwater Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1594 | $1,895 | $1.19 | 119d | 1 | 1.48mi |
| 1880 Pineta Cove Dr Middleburg, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1316 | $1,930 | $1.47 | 1d | 1 | 1.49mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Address: 1877 Jennings Way, Middleburg, FL 32068Status: Active
- Financial info
- List price $249,990
Exterior
- Parking
- 1 parking space (total)
- Utilities
- Electric serviceCentral air for cooling
- Home design
- Single-family plan named BaselSpec new construction
- Exterior features
- Living area approximately 1372
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Electric and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowave
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-25days on market $245,490 Active 109 DOM
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2026-08-24days on market $245,490 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $245,490 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $245,490 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $245,490 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $245,490 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $245,490 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-18price $245,490 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $245,240 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $245,240 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $245,240 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $245,240 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $245,240 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $245,240 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $245,240 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $245,240 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $245,240 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $245,240 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $245,240 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $245,240 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $245,240 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $245,240 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $245,240 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $245,240 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $245,240 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $245,240 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $245,240 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-26pricedays on market $245,240 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $244,990 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $244,990 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $244,990 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $244,990 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-20days on market $244,990 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $244,990 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-07-18pricedays on market $244,990 Active 70 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $249,990 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $249,990 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $249,990 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $249,990 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $249,990 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $249,990 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $249,990 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $249,990 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $249,990 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $249,990 Active 59 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $249,990 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $249,990 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $249,990 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $249,990 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $249,990 Active 53 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $23,848
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,751
- − Property taxes
- −$3,682
- − Insurance
- −$1,227
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,908
- − Management
- −$1,908
- − Depreciation
- −$7,142
- Taxable loss
- −$5,771
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,385
- After-tax cash flow
- $-134/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos
This townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good return on investment with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
- Resale Kitchen appliances replacement — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
- Resale Flooring replacement in high-traffic areas — Updated flooring can improve the home's overall appearance and functionality. ↑
- Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce utility costs. ↑
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Clay
- NCES district ID
- 1200300
- Math proficiency
- 58% ▼ -8.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 59% ▼ -3.00%
- Median HH income
- $59,379
- Composite
- 50.73/100
- National rank
- #1815
- State rank
- #14 of 73 in FL
Livability — Middleburg
- Score
- 65/100
- State rank
- #657
- US rank
- #13174
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Clay County · 230,495 people
- City population
- 58,983
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 58,983
- Household income
- $84,431
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 16% of renters
Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 230,495 people
- By 2030
- 242,427 · +5.2%
- By 2040
- 262,244 · +13.8%
- By 2050
- 275,148 · +19.4%
- By 2075
- 295,397 · +28.2%
- By 2100
- 287,592 · +24.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (74%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Clay
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -115.99%
- Current HPI
- 305.2531
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.35%
- Metro
- Jacksonville, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…