76 Ash Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$277,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Land · 56 Days on market

Built 2024 0.26 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This split plan is open, light & bright. As you walk through the front door of the home, you feel the openness with cathedral ceilings in the living room, dining room, and foyer. The kitchen features stylish cabinetry and quartz countertops and come complete with new range, microwave, and dishwasher. The charming nook is the perfect spot to enjoy your morning coffee. Tile floors throughout the house help with easy maintenance. There is fully tiled walk-in shower and dual sinks in the en-suite bath. Do laundry with ease in the air-conditioned laundry room. This home rests on just over a 1/4 acre lot ~ enough room for the family & pets to play, but not too much yard work. Silver S

Key facts

• Stylish cabinetry
• Dual sinks
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• STYLISH CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULLY TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• DUAL SINKS
• AIR-CONDITIONED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-471 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (34.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (34.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Marion average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 682 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $277k implies a 768% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,686 (34.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.29%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $43,834
• Equity at exit: $172,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $143,630
• Equity at exit: $312,631

Cash invested: $77,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 682
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,827 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,155/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,423

Max offer price $208,836

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-280	-5% $-375	+0% $-471	+5% $-567	+10% $-662
Rent	-10% $-615	-5% $-543	+0% $-471	+5% $-399	+10% $-327
Rate	-1.0pp $-332	-0.5pp $-401	base $-471	+0.5pp $-543	+1.0pp $-616

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,250
• Closing costs: $8,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
226 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.19mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	15d	1	0.24mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	22d	1	0.37mi
5 Olive Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	0.64mi
106 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	15d	1	0.75mi
21 Olive Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	15d	1	0.83mi
60 Bahia Court Trak Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,695	$1.20	22d	1	1.10mi
12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	15d	1	1.12mi
27 Sapphire Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,500	$1.20	22d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-02
   listed $277,000 Active
3. 2005-08-01
   soldstatus $31,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,516
• − Property taxes: −$4,155
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,754
• − Management: −$1,754
• − Depreciation: −$8,058
• Taxable loss: −$10,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,568
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+768.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $277,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $31,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · +13.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.