849 Tamarack · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 552 sqft · Manufactured public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1995 0.46 ac lot $453/sqft · 121% above area Est $249k · at est. $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This peaceful lake house retreat is perfect for full-time lake living, a weekend retreat, or your next Airbnb investment! It perfectly combines modern comfort with timeless charm. Inside, the open floor plan feels warm and functional, with fresh paint, laminate floors, and a roomy living area ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The main house offers plenty of space for gatherings and overnight guests, while the extra cabin just beyond the back patio can accommodate up to six more people. Outside, the spacious exterior features of a wooded double lot provide a tranquil escape perfect for unwinding in the peaceful surroundings watching sunsets and observing wildlife. Double lot has plenty of space for your recreational toys, boats, RV or just additional parking space. 3 additional storage sheds convey. Conveniently located just a few steps to the community pool and park/playground. Minutes from Canyon Lake's parks and boat ramps, this home provides easy access to Canyon Lake's abundant recreational opportunities. Whether you're seeking the tranquility of lake living or looking for an income producing investment property. This house has it all!**WANT MORE INVESTMENTS OR SPACE??LISTING #1923420 BACKING UP TO THIS PROPERTY BELONGS TO SAME OWNER**INQUIRE WITH YOUR PREFERRED LENDER ABUT A "DSCR" LOAN AND START MAKING PROFIT TODAY!!**

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Canyon lake access

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• EXTRA CABIN
• WOODED DOUBLE LOT
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CANYON LAKE ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-399 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (41.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,686 (41.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.70%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,002
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 0.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-70,314
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -51.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.58×
• Total profit: $-110,910
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-399

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,972

Max offer price $179,489

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-258	-5% $-328	+0% $-399	+5% $-470	+10% $-541
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-457	+0% $-399	+5% $-341	+10% $-283
Rate	-1.0pp $-273	-0.5pp $-336	base $-399	+0.5pp $-464	+1.0pp $-530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 195 DOM
15. 2025-11-17
    listed $250,000 New 1366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1366 chars)

    This peaceful lake house retreat is perfect for full-time lake living, a weekend retreat, or your next Airbnb investment! It perfectly combines modern comfort with timeless charm. Inside, the open floor plan feels warm and functional, with fresh paint, laminate floors, and a roomy living area ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The main house offers plenty of space for gatherings and overnight guests, while the extra cabin just beyond the back patio can accommodate up to six more people. Outside, the spacious exterior features of a wooded double lot provide a tranquil escape perfect for unwinding in the peaceful surroundings watching sunsets and observing wildlife. Double lot has plenty of space for your recreational toys, boats, RV or just additional parking space. 3 additional storage sheds convey. Conveniently located just a few steps to the community pool and park/playground. Minutes from Canyon Lake's parks and boat ramps, this home provides easy access to Canyon Lake's abundant recreational opportunities. Whether you're seeking the tranquility of lake living or looking for an income producing investment property. This house has it all!**WANT MORE INVESTMENTS OR SPACE??LISTING #1923420 BACKING UP TO THIS PROPERTY BELONGS TO SAME OWNER**INQUIRE WITH YOUR PREFERRED LENDER ABUT A "DSCR" LOAN AND START MAKING PROFIT TODAY!!**

16. 2015-12-16
    historical
17. 2015-12-03
    historical
18. 2015-08-29
    price $90,000
19. 2015-06-20
    listed $95,000 New
20. 2015-06-18
    listed $85,000
21. 2015-05-06
    historical
22. 2014-11-08
    listed $90,000
23. 2003-01-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,683/yr (+$307/mo · 413.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$2,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$9,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+177.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $250,000 LERA
• 2015-12-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2015-12-03 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2015-08-29 Price Changed $90,000 LERA
• 2015-06-20 Listed $95,000 LERA
• 2015-06-18 Listed $85,000 CTXMLS
• 2015-05-06 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2014-11-08 Listed $90,000 CTXMLS
• 2003-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $892 · -14.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.