15435 Cedarwood Ln Unit 5-304 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$399,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · Condo · 324 Days on market

Built 2000 $690/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BEAUTIFULLY UPDATED AND READY FOR IT'S NEW OWNERS! Located in the highly desired Bay Forest Community, this unit will appeal to the most discerning buyer. This home has a brand new air conditioner and all of the ductwork replaced. The kitchen has an oversized island with quartz countertops, upgraded backsplash, upgraded lighting and a wine cooler. Both bathrooms have been completely remodeled with beautiful coastal tile and vanities. The den offers added space for a home office or extra sleeping space for your guests. This home comes with a detached one-car garage and a common elevator. Enjoy all Bay Forest has to offer including a newly built boardwalk with an area to launch your kayak. M

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Upgraded lighting
• Wine cooler

Tags

• BRAND NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED BACKSPLASH
• UPGRADED LIGHTING
• WINE COOLER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is one of 15 units in the building and 87 units in the complex; Building has 3 floors with 3 units per floor; Restrictions include architectural controls, deeded restrictions, and no RVs
• Financial info: Total annual recurring HOA fees: $8,280; Total one-time fees: $150
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Professional management; HOA maintenance covers insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, and water; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, community room, exercise room, internet access, bike and jog path, bocce court, tennis court, pickleball, shuffleboard, sidewalks, streetlights, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Detached garage (1 car)
• Security: Gated community; Security included in HOA maintenance
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential carriage/coach style; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Rear exposure faces west; Built in 2000; Located in Bay Forest / Bermuda Bay development; Unit 304
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Stucco exterior; Single-hung windows; Gated community; Preserve view; Wooden dock; Zero lot line

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/ice maker; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den; Split bedroom layout
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower-only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Cable prewire / high-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Den / study; Great room; Screened lanai / porch; Guest room; Guest bath; Furnished; Common elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $399k).
• Recommended offer: $351k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Naples Park Elementary School (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 395 students, 48% FRL); North Naples Middle School (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #34 of 571 statewide, top 6%, 903 students, 25% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 55% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 593 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,992/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.33%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-51,392
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-63,870
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 593
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$690
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,048
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,448

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $705	-5% $567	+0% $429	+5% $292	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $35	-5% $232	+0% $429	+5% $627	+10% $824
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $531	base $429	+0.5pp $326	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	15d	1	0.08mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	25d	1	0.13mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	15d	1	0.13mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	25d	1	0.13mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	23d	1	0.14mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	25d	3	0.18mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	25d	1	0.22mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	25d	3	0.26mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	25d	1	0.36mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	25d	1	0.41mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	25d	1	0.45mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	25d	1	0.45mi
298 Emerald Bay Cir Unit K6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1202	$4,750	$3.95	25d	1	0.48mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	25d	1	0.59mi
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$3,800	$2.16	25d	2	0.61mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	25d	1	0.62mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	16d	1	0.69mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	25d	1	0.70mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	23d	1	0.80mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	25d	1	0.83mi
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	17d	1	0.84mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	25d	1	0.84mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	25d	1	0.84mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1604	$9,500	$5.92	25d	3	0.85mi
265 Barefoot Beach Blvd #203 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1604	$13,000	$8.10	15d	1	0.85mi
262 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0–3.0	1864	$10,500	$5.63	25d	2	0.85mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	25d	1	0.86mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	25d	1	0.87mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	25d	1	0.91mi
28070 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2008	$12,000	$5.98	25d	1	0.92mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	25d	1	0.94mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	25d	1	0.96mi
28211 Winthrop Cir Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1918	$10,500	$5.47	25d	1	0.97mi
211 6th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$11,900	$5.95	25d	1	0.99mi
28450 Winthrop Cir Unit 1546014P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$7,804	$4.12	15d	1	1.05mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	25d	2	1.06mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.5	1864	$9,700	$5.20	15d	2	1.08mi
255 Barefoot Beach Blvd #4 Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.5	2003	$25,000	$12.48	15d	1	1.08mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	17d	1	1.08mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	25d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $690 · $8,280/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $399,000 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 321 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 320 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 319 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 318 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 313 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 311 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 310 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    price $399,000
15. 2026-02-23
    price $409,900
16. 2026-01-27
    price $419,900
17. 2025-08-01
    listed $434,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$2,792
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,792
• − Management: −$4,792
• − HOA: −$8,280
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$701
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$168
• After-tax cash flow: $5,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $399,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $409,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $419,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-01 Listed $434,900 NAPLESMLS