1485 Yaupon Dr · Canyon Lake, TX 78623

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2018 0.68 ac lot $244/sqft · 13% below area Est $400k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming traditional-style home in Rancho Del Lago West, set on an oversized lot with sweeping, unobstructed Hill Country views that stretch for miles. This well-maintained property offers a comfortable open-concept layout, complemented by a spacious balcony perfect for taking in the beautiful Hill Country views. Designed for easy living, the property features primarily xeriscaping, providing low-maintenance and water-wise landscaping. The home's classic appeal is enhanced by durable brick construction on all four sides, along with a circular driveway and a 2-car garage. With no HOA, you'll enjoy added flexibility and freedom. Previously used as a vacation home, this property is ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, and popular Hill Country destinations-including New Braunfels, Blanco, San Marcos, Johnson City, and Fredericksburg-you'll also have easy access to both San Antonio and Austin. Just minutes from Canyon Lake and the Guadalupe River, this home offers the perfect balance of peaceful surroundings, expansive views, and everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Spacious balcony
• Hill country views
• Brick construction

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• HILL COUNTRY VIEWS
• SPACIOUS BALCONY
• XERISCAPING
• BRICK CONSTRUCTION
• CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage faces front; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Above-ground utilities; Public water; Aerobic septic; Electricity available; Cable available; Fiber optic available; High-speed internet available; Private trash collection
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Built by Tilson; Has a view; Brick/mortar foundation
• Construction: Masonry construction; Composition/shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Year built (assessor)
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered patio; Patio; Rain gutters; Hill Country view; Horses allowed; Outside city limits; County road frontage; Half to one acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/Dining combo
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 3 — Main level; Bedroom 2 — Main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (one unit)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen/Dining combo; Separate shower; Shower only; Tub/shower combination; Vanity; Walk-in closets; Eat-in kitchen; Decorative fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room / laundry in utility room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rebecca Creek El (math 55% / reading 52%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 605 students, 51% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 31% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,000 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,423
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1405 Yaupon Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+2%)	15mo	$412,000	$283	81
1310 Yaupon	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+7%)	10mo	$395,000	$259	73
1463 Birch Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+13%)	5mo	$375,000	$232	70
1443 Birch Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+8%)	17mo	$374,999	$242	67
1831 Birch Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,639 (+14%)	2mo	$395,000	$241	61
1315 Agarita	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+12%)	8mo	$430,000	$267	58
1139 Persimmon Pass	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+5%)	6mo	$349,000	$232	52
1010 Persimmon Pass	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+12%)	2mo	$340,000	$211	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-84,960
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-110,439
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78623

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$446 /mo · $5,353/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,065

Max offer price $270,088

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-249	-5% $-348	+0% $-447	+5% $-545	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-644	-5% $-545	+0% $-447	+5% $-348	+10% $-249
Rate	-1.0pp $-271	-0.5pp $-358	base $-447	+0.5pp $-537	+1.0pp $-629

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1405 Yaupon Dr Fischer, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,500	$1.71	4d	1	0.07mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on marketlisting id $349,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Under Contract 1146-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

   Charming traditional-style home in Rancho Del Lago West, set on an oversized lot with sweeping, unobstructed Hill Country views that stretch for miles. This well-maintained property offers a comfortable open-concept layout, complemented by a spacious balcony perfect for taking in the beautiful Hill Country views. Designed for easy living, the property features primarily xeriscaping, providing low-maintenance and water-wise landscaping. The home's classic appeal is enhanced by durable brick construction on all four sides, along with a circular driveway and a 2-car garage. With no HOA, you'll enjoy added flexibility and freedom. Previously used as a vacation home, this property is ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, and popular Hill Country destinations-including New Braunfels, Blanco, San Marcos, Johnson City, and Fredericksburg-you'll also have easy access to both San Antonio and Austin. Just minutes from Canyon Lake and the Guadalupe River, this home offers the perfect balance of peaceful surroundings, expansive views, and everyday convenience.

3. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Option 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

   Charming traditional-style home in Rancho Del Lago West, set on an oversized lot with sweeping, unobstructed Hill Country views that stretch for miles. This well-maintained property offers a comfortable open-concept layout, complemented by a spacious balcony perfect for taking in the beautiful Hill Country views. Designed for easy living, the property features primarily xeriscaping, providing low-maintenance and water-wise landscaping. The home's classic appeal is enhanced by durable brick construction on all four sides, along with a circular driveway and a 2-car garage. With no HOA, you'll enjoy added flexibility and freedom. Previously used as a vacation home, this property is ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, and popular Hill Country destinations-including New Braunfels, Blanco, San Marcos, Johnson City, and Fredericksburg-you'll also have easy access to both San Antonio and Austin. Just minutes from Canyon Lake and the Guadalupe River, this home offers the perfect balance of peaceful surroundings, expansive views, and everyday convenience.

4. 2026-05-14
   listed $349,000 Active 1146-char remark
5. 2026-04-27
   listed $349,000 New 1149-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1149 chars)

   Charming traditional-style home in Rancho Del Lago West, set on an oversized lot with sweeping, unobstructed Hill Country views that stretch for miles. This well-maintained property offers a comfortable open-concept layout, complemented by a spacious balcony perfect for taking in the beautiful Hill Country views. Designed for easy living, the property features primarily xeriscaping, providing low-maintenance and water-wise landscaping. The home's classic appeal is enhanced by durable brick construction on all four sides, along with a circular driveway and a 2-car garage. With no HOA, you'll enjoy added flexibility and freedom. Previously used as a vacation home, this property is ideal as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Conveniently located near local schools, shopping, and popular Hill Country destinations-including New Braunfels, Blanco, San Marcos, Johnson City, and Fredericksburg-you'll also have easy access to both San Antonio and Austin. Just minutes from Canyon Lake and the Guadalupe River, this home offers the perfect balance of peaceful surroundings, expansive views, and everyday convenience.

6. 2026-03-23
   historical
7. 2026-03-23
   historical
8. 2025-09-03
   price $359,000
9. 2025-09-02
   price $359,000
10. 2025-07-10
    price $369,750
11. 2025-07-09
    price $369,750
12. 2025-06-27
    price $374,650
13. 2025-06-26
    price $374,650
14. 2025-06-21
    price $379,750
15. 2025-06-20
    price $379,750
16. 2025-06-18
    listed $383,000 New
17. 2025-05-09
    price $383,500
18. 2025-03-13
    listed $395,000 Active
19. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus Sold
20. 2015-10-09
    soldstatus
21. 2015-09-10
    status Pending
22. 2015-08-07
    listed $13,330 New
23. 1985-07-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,353 · $446/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,387 · $532/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,034/yr (+$86/mo · 19.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,353
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$11,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,784
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• City population: 42,159
• Population (ZIP): 1,575

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.90%
• Current HPI: 234.418
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2518.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2026-05-26 Pending — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — LERA
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — LERA
• 2026-05-14 Listed $349,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $349,000 LERA
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $359,000 LERA
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $359,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $369,750 LERA
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $369,750 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $374,650 LERA
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $374,650 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-21 Price Changed $379,750 LERA
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $379,750 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $383,000 LERA
• 2025-05-09 Price Changed $383,500 CTXMLS
• 2025-03-13 Listed $395,000 CTXMLS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2015-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-09-10 Pending — LERA
• 2015-08-07 Listed $13,330 LERA
• 1985-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,353 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.