2207 Casey Ave · Mount Vernon, IL 62864

$54,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 936 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1935 6,075 sqft lot Est $47k · 17% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2 Bedroom property offers a perfect blend of timeless charm and untapped potential, eagerly awaiting your personal touch. Step inside to discover original hardwood floors that whisper of the home's storied past. The inviting living spaces are bathed in natural light, creating a warm and welcoming atmosphere. The kitchen is spacious and poised for transformation into a culinary haven tailored to your tastes. The bedrooms are modestly sized, providing cozy retreats filled with character. Immerse yourself in the possibilities as you envision updating these spaces while preserving their historical allure. Outside, the sizable yard offers endless opportunities for gardening enthusiasts or t

Key facts

• Sizable yard
• Parks
• Schools

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SIZABLE YARD
• LOCAL SHOPS
• PARKS
• SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 50 x 121.5 (less than 0.25 acre)
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water service; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story layout; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Approximately 91–100 years old
• Exterior features: Public water; Public sewer; School bus service available

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on the main level); Master bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring in bedrooms, dining room, kitchen and living room
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Unfinished full basement
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.2% vs local median 5.3% in Mount Vernon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#413 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mt Vernon Twp Hsd 201 (town): math 13% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #532 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mount Vernon High School (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #479 of 693 statewide, top 71%, 1,210 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 6 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $55k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,076 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.33%
• DSCR: 3.37
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $46,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1809 Cherry St	0.33mi	2/1.0	936 (0%)	9mo	$27,000	$29	77
804 S 20th St	0.47mi	2/1.0	926 (-1%)	1mo	$40,000	$43	76
601 Nora Ln	0.66mi	2/1.0	936 (0%)	6mo	$106,500	$114	65
2617 Cherry St	0.34mi	2/1.0	908 (-3%)	18mo	$44,000	$48	64
2517 Casey Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+7%)	3mo	$44,900	$45	62
2524 College St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (-4%)	17mo	$28,000	$31	59
403 S 28th St	0.47mi	2/1.0	955 (+2%)	21mo	$71,940	$75	57
905 S 23rd St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,000 (+7%)	19mo	$7,000	$7	48
1006 S 26th St	0.67mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+10%)	8mo	$105,000	$102	46
1917 Conger St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,070 (+14%)	12mo	$54,000	$50	44
409 Orange	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+8%)	13mo	$144,000	$143	42
1113 S 23rd St	0.74mi	2/1.0	812 (-13%)	20mo	$58,000	$71	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $34,633
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.61×
• Total profit: $86,252
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62864

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,335 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $733/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $683

Break-even live

Break-even rent $471

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1407 S 34th St Mt Vernon, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,310	$1.63	43d	7	1.11mi
4100 Willow Spgs Mount Vernon, IL	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	847	$736	$0.87	43d	1	1.40mi
4201 Valley Forge Rd Mt Vernon, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$2,107	$2.93	43d	9	1.46mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $54,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $54,900 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $733 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $989 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$257/yr (+$21/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$733
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,282
• − Management: −$1,282
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $7,782
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,868
• After-tax cash flow: $6,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt Vernon Twp Hsd 201
• NCES district ID: 1727360
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,188
• Composite: 12.22/100
• National rank: #9648
• State rank: #532 of 620 in IL

Livability — Mount Vernon

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #8520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mount Vernon, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,061

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,818 people
• By 2030: 35,764 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 33,649 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 31,557 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 26,055 · -29.2%
• By 2100: 19,237 · -47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.5% · R 73.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.64%
• Current HPI: 134.2669
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+120.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $54,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-11-22 Sold (MLS) $22,600 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-26 Listed $24,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2017): $733 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.