3004 NE 12th St · Gainesville, FL 32609

$246,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1962 8,276 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold FSBO - for comps

Key facts

• 2018 roof
• Renovated bathrooms
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• RENOVATED BATHROOMS
• FLEXIBLE FOUR-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• 2018 ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; Unfurnished; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Development: Highland Court

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a residential property
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings Elementary School (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,037 of 2,144 statewide, top 96%, 402 students, 92% FRL); Howard W. Bishop Middle School (math 52% / reading 56%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 823 students, 58% FRL); Eastside High School (math 29% / reading 56%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,220 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,990/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($49k/yr) (locally 1037% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,012 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,776
• Equity at exit: $36,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,927
• Equity at exit: $21,313

Cash invested: $69,020 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32609

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,293
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,242/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,108

Max offer price $230,015

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-24	+0% $-93	+5% $-163	+10% $-233
Rent	-10% $-251	-5% $-172	+0% $-93	+5% $-15	+10% $64
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $-31	base $-93	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,625
• Closing costs: $7,395
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   price $246,500
3. 2026-03-13
   listed $249,900 Active
4. 2024-05-17
   soldstatus $246,000
5. 2024-05-15
   soldstatus $246,000 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   Sold FSBO - for comps

6. 2024-05-15
   listed $246,000 21-char remark

   Show marketing remark (21 chars)

   Sold FSBO - for comps

7. 2024-04-15
   historical
8. 2024-03-26
   price $244,900
9. 2024-03-08
   listed $249,900 Active
10. 2023-11-08
    soldstatus $150,000
11. 2022-07-08
    soldstatus $220,000 Closed
12. 2022-07-08
    soldstatus $220,000
13. 2022-06-13
    status Pending
14. 2022-06-11
    listed $215,000 Active
15. 2020-03-10
    soldstatus $145,000
16. 2020-03-05
    soldstatus $145,000
17. 2019-12-14
    listed $156,000
18. 2005-09-21
    soldstatus $129,000
19. 2005-09-15
    soldstatus $129,000
20. 2005-06-12
    listed $125,000
21. 1997-03-26
    soldstatus $56,500
22. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $45,000
23. 1987-07-01
    soldstatus $37,400
24. 1981-04-01
    soldstatus $32,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,242 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,808
• − Property taxes: −$3,242
• − Insurance: −$1,232
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$7,171
• Taxable loss: −$5,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,294
• After-tax cash flow: $174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gainesville, FL
• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,752
• Household income: $49,406
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1037.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.25%
• Current HPI: 304.1951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+670.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $246,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $246,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Listed $246,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Sold (MLS) $246,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-08 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-08 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2022-07-08 Sold (MLS) $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-11 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2020-03-05 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-14 Listed $156,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-21 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2005-09-15 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-06-12 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $56,500 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 1987-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,400 Public Records
• 1981-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,242 · -22.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.