7311 Bethel Church Rd · Macon-Bibb County, GA 31052

$99,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1957 0.51 ac lot $89/sqft · 10% below area Est $111k · 10% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 99 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 5.4% in Macon-Bibb County — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bibb County (urban): math 11% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #161 of 174 in GA (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 154 units permitted in Bibb County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bibb County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,909 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.33%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,976
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -9.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $65,943
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.83×
• Total profit: $163,137
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31052

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $1,290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $767

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4529 Dixon Rd Lizella, GA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,400	$1.78	13d	1	0.89mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $99,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    price $99,900
18. 2026-03-03
    listed $105,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $488 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $919 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 88.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $14,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,528
• After-tax cash flow: $11,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bibb County
• NCES district ID: 1300420
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,426
• Composite: 12.13/100
• National rank: #9654
• State rank: #161 of 174 in GA

Livability — Macon-Bibb County

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Macon-Bibb County, GA
• City population: 143,186
• Population (ZIP): 9,308

Population outlook (Bibb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 148,772 people
• By 2030: 145,904 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 139,404 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 131,603 · -11.5%
• By 2075: 111,050 · -25.4%
• By 2100: 83,346 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bibb

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.4) · D 61.0% · R 38.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.4pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.4 2020: D+23.8 2016: D+20.2 2012: D+20.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.49%
• Current HPI: 200.3778
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $99,900 CGMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $105,000 CGMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $488 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.