302 Dogie #B Dr · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$2,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Condo · 105 Days on market

Built 1985

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AVAILABLE FOR LEASE NOW! This beautifully updated 2 bedroom, 2 full bathroom duplex is perfectly located in the heart of Horseshoe Bay, just minutes from local dining, shopping, and all the area’s top attractions. Enjoy stylish updates including gorgeous laminate flooring throughout and a brand-new built-in microwave above the stove for added counter space and convenience. This property is well equipped and comes with a stove, refrigerator, dishwasher, microwave and washer/dryer! The spacious living room features a cozy fireplace — perfect for those cooler Hill Country evenings. Step outside to a large wrap-around porch deck, ideal for sipping your morning coffee while taking i

Key facts

• Updated duplex
• Cozy fireplace
• Built-in microwave

Tags

• UPDATED DUPLEX
• LARGE WRAP-AROUND PORCH
• STUNNING VIEWS OF LAKE LBJ
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GORGEOUS LAMINATE FLOORING
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $2,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $2k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $2k).
• Recommended offer: $2k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 840.1% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33 of equity ($14 loan paydown + $19 appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $560 cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($2k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,820 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 88.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 840.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 2978.03%
• DSCR: 133.51
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 159.17×
• Total profit: $88,573
• Equity at exit: $677

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 343.11×
• Total profit: $191,581
• Equity at exit: $895

Cash invested: $560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2 /mo · $30/yr
• Insurance: −$1
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $1,390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17

Max offer price $2,000

Occupancy floor 17%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $500
• Closing costs: $60
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	23d	1	0.13mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	43d	1	0.14mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,224	$1.27	23d	2	0.18mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	23d	1	0.18mi
307 Out Yonder #8 Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.5	884	$1,599	$1.81	43d	1	0.18mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	43d	1	0.18mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	12d	1	0.43mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	12d	1	0.54mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,650	$1.54	43d	1	0.54mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	10d	1	0.57mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	43d	1	0.62mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	43d	1	0.71mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	43d	1	0.72mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	43d	1	0.78mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	43d	1	0.78mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	23d	1	0.82mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.84mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	43d	1	0.99mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	43d	1	1.05mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	23d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-09-23
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-09
   listed $2,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,320
• − Mortgage interest: −$112
• − Property taxes: −$30
• − Insurance: −$10
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$58
• Taxable income: $17,699
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,248
• After-tax cash flow: $12,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-23 Pending — HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-09 Listed $2,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID