88 W Peenpack Trl · Sparrow Bush, NY 12780

$234,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1972 5.00 ac lot $300/sqft · 10% above area Est $366k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 5 private acres in the Town of Deerpark, this unique Sparrowbush property offers the kind of peaceful country setting that so many buyers dream about, while still being just minutes from convenience, recreation, and commuter access. Backing up to and neighboring a sprawling 360-acre hunting club, the property enjoys an exceptional sense of privacy and seclusion, creating the perfect retreat for outdoor enthusiasts, hunters, nature lovers, or anyone craving room to breathe and a quieter way of life. Originally built as a mobile home in 1972, a substantial addition completed in 1992 nearly doubled the home’s footprint, creating approximately 1,340 square feet of living sp

Key facts

• Private acres
• Exposed beams
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• PRIVATE ACRES
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY SETTING
• EXPANSIVE LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• EXPOSED BEAMS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electric service by Orange & Rockland; Propane available; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Private trash collection
• Home design: Mobile home with land; One level; Actual condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Other foundation types
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Partially wooded; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Includes a first-floor bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating with propane; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Entrance foyer; High-speed internet; His and hers closets; Storage; Covered porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $234k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-884/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.5% in Sparrow Bush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Port Jervis City School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #451 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Anna S Kuhl Elementary School (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 755 students, 63% FRL); Port Jervis Middle School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 379 students, 59% FRL); Port Jervis Senior High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 750 students, 55% FRL).
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $234k implies a 1596% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,831 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,422
• List price: $234,000
• Delta: -36.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $47,794
• Equity at exit: $131,038

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $149,342
• Equity at exit: $224,869

Cash invested: $65,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12780

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,227
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,459/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,042

Max offer price $220,983

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,500
• Closing costs: $7,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $234,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $234,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $234,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $234,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $234,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $234,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $234,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $234,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $249,000 Active 2060-char remark
17. 1985-10-21
    soldstatus $13,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,707 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,108
• − Property taxes: −$3,459
• − Insurance: −$1,170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$6,807
• Taxable loss: −$4,905
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $293/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Jervis City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,506
• Composite: 39.33/100
• National rank: #3984
• State rank: #451 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sparrow Bush

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,245

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.89%
• Current HPI: 323.2674
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1595.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $234,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Listed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1985-10-21 Sold (Public Records) $13,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,459 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.