1506 North St · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1989 9,583 sqft lot Est $214k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming three-bedroom, one-bathroom home is a perfect opportunity for a first-time homebuyer. With the option to secure a renovation loan, you can transform this property into your dream home. Imagine the possibilities-such as expanding the layout to create a spacious four-bedroom, two-bathroom residence. The large, fenced-in backyard offers plenty of space for outdoor living, including room to add a pool, garden, or entertaining area. (Roof and AC was replaced in 2012) Conveniently located within walking distance to both an elementary and junior high school, this home is ideal for families. Plus, a beautiful community park is just three blocks away, providing easy access to recrea

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 36 days

Tags

• LARGE FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• COMMUNITY PARK NEARBY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Other parking
• Utilities: 150 Amp electric service; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; Southeast facing
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard with chain link fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $175k implies a 322% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.10%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $214,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1734 Harring St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,003 (+0%)	7mo	$250,000	$249	79
403 Vermont Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+8%)	1mo	$240,000	$222	78
1643 Spruce St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,098 (+10%)	4mo	$235,000	$214	70
1232 Forbes St	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+6%)	12mo	$230,000	$218	64
596 S West St	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,032 (+3%)	6mo	$260,000	$252	63
20 Vermont Ave	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,145 (+14%)	4mo	$225,000	$197	63
304 Highland Ave S	0.42mi	3/1.0	943 (-6%)	9mo	$223,000	$236	62
429 Melrose Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,025 (+2%)	6mo	$199,000	$194	58
463 Melrose Ct	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,025 (+2%)	10mo	$159,000	$155	56
719 Anne Bonney Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,102 (+10%)	1mo	$233,000	$211	50
411 Pearl St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	5mo	$240,000	$211	44
601 Sunset Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,072 (+7%)	13mo	$212,500	$198	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-22,231
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-23,318
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,688/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,643

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4016 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4016 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.77mi
4019 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4019 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.77mi
4028 Pine Hill Pt Unit 4028 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1306	$1,850	$1.42	24d	1	0.78mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	0.82mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	4d	1	0.82mi
806 Oak St Unit 14 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	3d	1	0.82mi
806 Oak St Unit 10 Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	4d	1	0.82mi
4028 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	3d	1	0.92mi
4019 Pine Ave Unit 1 Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1304	$1,850	$1.42	3d	1	0.92mi
410 Center St Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.02mi
154 Governor St Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	854	$1,495	$1.75	7d	1	1.12mi
104 Saint Elmo Rd Green Cove Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,850	$1.65	24d	1	1.14mi
1408 N Orange Ave Green Cove Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	840	$1,375	$1.64	3d	36	1.26mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 1989-02-23
   soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,688 · $307/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,688
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+321.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 1989-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,688 · +253.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.