1907 Hill Ave · Middletown, OH 45044

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1921 4,792 sqft lot $127/sqft · 24% above area Est $204k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity you don't want to miss! This property features an ADU, offering the perfect chance for additional income while enjoying your own home. The main house includes 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, while the ADU offers 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and a cozy living areaideal for rental income, guests, or extended family. Located in Middletown, this home has been recently renovated with new flooring, fresh paint, updated windows, and remodeled bathrooms. Don't let this great opportunity pass you by!

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• Updated windows
• New flooring

Tags

• RECENTLY RENOVATED
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• COZY LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-75 ($-894/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#389 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, commute F.
• Middletown City (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #610 of 656 in OH (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Amanda Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,584 statewide, top 80%, 374 students, 0% FRL); Middletown Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #580 of 654 statewide, top 89%, 941 students, 0% FRL); Middletown High School (math 18% / reading 19%, grade F, #683 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 1,753 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 69% district-wide (69 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,163 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (356 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $205k implies a 886% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1921 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $158,412 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1921 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $203,928
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 0.53%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
707 Crawford St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-8%)	2mo	$180,000	$122	81
410 Moore St	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-5%)	6mo	$110,000	$72	70
1405 Highland St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,573 (-3%)	1mo	$225,000	$143	66
509 Young St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,540 (-5%)	4mo	$180,000	$117	61
808 The Alameda	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,746 (+8%)	3mo	$259,000	$148	57
2008 Logan Ave	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,414 (-12%)	4mo	$110,500	$78	56
2800 Grand Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,530 (-5%)	2mo	$375,000	$245	56
401 S Sutphin St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,824 (+13%)	6mo	$188,000	$103	54
503 Gladys Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-7%)	3mo	$270,000	$180	52
1305 Highland St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,471 (-9%)	1mo	$165,900	$113	47
522 Young St	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,454 (-10%)	3mo	$166,000	$114	46
18 N Sutphin St	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,834 (+14%)	0mo	$240,000	$131	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-32,545
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-10,637
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45044

• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,986/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $191,838

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-16	+0% $-75	+5% $-133	+10% $-191
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-137	+0% $-75	+5% $-12	+10% $51
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-22	base $-75	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1915 Woodlawn Ave Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1060	$1,550	$1.46	45d	1	0.20mi
2007 Logan Ave Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1502	$1,195	$0.80	19d	1	0.37mi
108 Shafor St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1110	$925	$0.83	22d	1	0.80mi
108 Shafor St Middletown, OH	2.0	1.0	1110	$925	$0.83	13d	1	0.80mi
3122 Beatrice Dr Middletown, OH	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,550	$1.29	45d	1	1.00mi
907 8th Ave Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,400	$1.01	19d	1	1.04mi
3504 Greenwood Dr Middletown, OH	3.0	1.5	1712	$1,831	$1.07	14d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $205,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $205,000 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Opportunity you don't want to miss! This property features an ADU, offering the perfect chance for additional income while enjoying your own home. The main house includes 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, while the ADU offers 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and a cozy living areaideal for rental income, guests, or extended family. Located in Middletown, this home has been recently renovated with new flooring, fresh paint, updated windows, and remodeled bathrooms. Don't let this great opportunity pass you by!

15. 2026-03-05
    listed $220,000 Active 498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (498 chars)

    Opportunity you don't want to miss! This property features an ADU, offering the perfect chance for additional income while enjoying your own home. The main house includes 5 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, while the ADU offers 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, and a cozy living areaideal for rental income, guests, or extended family. Located in Middletown, this home has been recently renovated with new flooring, fresh paint, updated windows, and remodeled bathrooms. Don't let this great opportunity pass you by!

16. 2025-03-26
    historical 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    This charming 2-level house is waiting for someone to bring it back to life! With a spacious basement, room for improvement, and tons of potential, guess room in the back with separate utilities bill there is a tenant occupying it. This property is ideal for someone who wants to make it their own.Quick and hassle-free closing for cash buyers.

17. 2025-03-05
    listed $200,000 Active 344-char remark

    Show marketing remark (344 chars)

    This charming 2-level house is waiting for someone to bring it back to life! With a spacious basement, room for improvement, and tons of potential, guess room in the back with separate utilities bill there is a tenant occupying it. This property is ideal for someone who wants to make it their own.Quick and hassle-free closing for cash buyers.

18. 2008-04-30
    soldstatus $20,800
19. 2004-06-02
    soldstatus $87,000
20. 1996-03-22
    soldstatus $61,900
21. 1996-01-26
    listed $59,900
22. 1980-12-01
    soldstatus $41,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,986 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,592 · $216/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 30.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$1,986
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$4,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,078
• After-tax cash flow: $184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City
• NCES district ID: 3904440
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $36,650
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8605
• State rank: #610 of 656 in OH

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6338

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, OH
• County: Butler County · 381,674 people
• City population: 96,117
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 56,217
• Household income: $73,732
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1532.0

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 387,706 people
• By 2030: 392,028 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 395,307 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 391,116 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 378,642 · -2.3%
• By 2100: 343,248 · -11.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.3) · D 36.4% · R 62.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -26.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.3 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+28.3 2012: R+26.2 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.07%
• Current HPI: 219.0479
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.31%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+396.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $205,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $220,000 Cincy MLS
• 2025-03-26 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2025-03-05 Listed $200,000 Cincy MLS
• 2008-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $20,800 Public Records
• 2004-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $87,000 Public Records
• 1996-03-22 Sold (MLS) $61,900 Cincy MLS
• 1996-01-26 Listed $59,900 Cincy MLS
• 1980-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,986 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.