451 12th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$80,000

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1915 4,290 sqft lot Est $94k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Welcome to an exceptional house-hackable duplex opportunity in a desirable neighborhood! This property offers incredible flexibility for both investors and owner-occupants. Live in one unit while renting the other for steady income , with rental potential of $1,000+/month from one unit alone, this is a true wealth-building property. The home already benefits from updated plumbing, newer windows, and strong structural integrity , setting the stage for a straightforward renovation. While cosmetic and mechanical upgrades (kitchens, baths, flooring, and electrical service) are anticipated, NORLIC’s expert team has done the legwork alraedy to seal the envelope. Estimates are roughly $50,00

Key facts

• Flexible floor plans
• Porch upgrade
• Newer windows

Tags

• UPDATED PLUMBING
• NEWER WINDOWS
• STRONG STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY
• SOLID SIDING
• PORCH UPGRADE
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $709/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,541/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $80k implies a 290% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.95%
• DSCR: 4.38
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,248
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 19th St	0.41mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,208 (-2%)	11mo	$80,000	$36	64
417 18th St	0.39mi	6/2.0	2,080 (-7%)	10mo	$166,000	$80	61
123 6th St	0.63mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,198 (-2%)	8mo	$230,000	$105	55
444 20th St	0.48mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,385 (+6%)	6mo	$25,000	$10	53
445 Elmwood Ave	0.73mi	6/2.0	2,314 (+3%)	9mo	$80,000	$35	53
1023 15th St	0.62mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,304 (+3%)	5mo	$190,000	$82	50
2219 Walnut Ave	0.65mi	6/3.0	2,023 (-10%)	4mo	$62,500	$31	46
541 20th St	0.53mi	5/2.0 (-1)	1,917 (-15%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	46
2230 Grand Ave	0.75mi	6/3.0	2,348 (+5%)	11mo	$165,000	$70	44
214 22nd St	0.66mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,070 (-8%)	8mo	$87,000	$42	40
559 22nd St	0.64mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,520 (+12%)	10mo	$38,000	$15	33
1113 Whitney Ave	0.71mi	7/3.0 (+1)	2,504 (+12%)	8mo	$48,000	$19	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 75.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.46×
• Total profit: $77,395
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $183,914
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,541 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,641/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 39%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$2,542
Total (2 units)			$2,541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-07
   listed $80,000 Active
3. 1998-08-11
   soldstatus $20,527

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,641
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,439
• − Management: −$2,439
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $16,763
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,023
• After-tax cash flow: $12,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+289.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $80,000 WNYREIS
• 1998-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $20,527 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,641 · -31.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.