3420 Lanark Dr · Elfers, FL 34690

$99,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 550 Days on market

Built 1972 4,774 sqft lot Est $91k · 10% over $143/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready to move into. .. well cared for single wide with tip-out to make L. R. a double wide. 8x12 finished side porch, inside laundry. Association pool heated year around 86 degree, maintances inlcudes lawn service and trash removal. Furnishing stay with home. Home Warranty is included.

Key facts

• Active clubhouse
• Trash removal
• Lawn maintenance

Tags

• HEATED YEAR-ROUND POOL
• ACTIVE CLUBHOUSE
• LAWN MAINTENANCE
• TRASH REMOVAL
• SHUFFLEBOARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Private maintained road; Near public transit; In-county location
• Financial info: Total monthly fees: $143; Total annual fees: $1,716
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $143 (includes common area taxes, pool, maintenance of grounds, management, private road, recreation facilities, escrow reserves); Association amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court, deed restrictions, street lights, sidewalks, vehicle restrictions, lobby key required, fence restrictions; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (max ~25 lbs, breed restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Deeded parking; Parking pad; Tandem parking; Carport (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Private water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; One level; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal roof; Other construction materials; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Deck; Enclosed porch; Patio; Screened porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalks; Shed(s); Mature landscaping with trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Window treatments (blinds, rods)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside utility; Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.7% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 131 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 550 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $100k implies a 156% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 550 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $90,720
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3210 Hampshire Dr	0.23mi	2/1.5	672 (0%)	5mo	$80,000	$119	83
3415 Chatford Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5	768 (+14%)	4mo	$103,000	$134	64
3241 Channing Dr	0.17mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	14mo	$97,000	$135	64
3406 Lanark Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	576 (-14%)	12mo	$120,000	$208	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $1,528
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $13,840
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $546/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	14d	1	0.71mi
4124 Flamingo Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,500	$2.02	3d	1	0.71mi
4348 Plaza Dr Holiday, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	860	$1,499	$1.74	2d	9	0.89mi
4205 Jordana Way Holiday, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,404	$1.37	2d	13	0.97mi
4209 Touchton Pl New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	624	$1,300	$2.08	16d	1	1.00mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.12mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.15mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	24d	1	1.15mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	21d	1	1.15mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	14d	1	1.18mi
4358 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit G Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	24d	1	1.18mi
5844 Sunshine Park Dr New Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	672	$1,100	$1.64	2d	1	1.20mi
4318 Tahitian Gardens Cir Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	24d	1	1.26mi
4722 Kennedy Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	504	$850	$1.69	24d	1	1.33mi
2122 Ranchita Trl Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	648	$1,399	$2.16	24d	1	1.35mi
2117 Calusa Trl Unit B Holiday, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,200	$1.69	4d	1	1.37mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,100	$1.49	20d	1	1.41mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	17d	1	1.44mi
2133 Melody Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	510	$1,078	$2.11	14d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 550 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 549 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 548 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 547 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 545 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 541 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 540 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,900 Active 539 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,900 Active 536 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 535 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 534 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 533 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 532 DOM
14. 2025-07-04
    price $99,900
15. 2024-12-15
    listed $105,000 Active
16. 2012-04-26
    soldstatus $39,000 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Ready to move into. .. well cared for single wide with tip-out to make L. R. a double wide. 8x12 finished side porch, inside laundry. Association pool heated year around 86 degree, maintances inlcudes lawn service and trash removal. Furnishing stay with home. Home Warranty is included.

17. 2011-05-12
    listed $39,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Ready to move into. .. well cared for single wide with tip-out to make L. R. a double wide. 8x12 finished side porch, inside laundry. Association pool heated year around 86 degree, maintances inlcudes lawn service and trash removal. Furnishing stay with home. Home Warranty is included.

18. 2010-11-29
    listed $42,900
19. 2010-02-04
    listed $49,900
20. 2009-04-08
    listed $52,900
21. 2009-01-08
    listed $52,900
22. 2007-03-19
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2007-02-28
    soldstatus $50,000
24. 2006-11-20
    listed $59,900
25. 2006-05-23
    listed $64,900
26. 1983-09-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $546 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $829 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$546
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,331
• − Management: −$1,331
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,708
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$650
• After-tax cash flow: $3,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+256.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-15 Listed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-26 Sold (MLS) $39,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-12 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-29 Listed $42,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-02-04 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-08 Listed $52,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-08 Listed $52,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-28 Sold (MLS) $50,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-20 Listed $59,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-23 Listed $64,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1983-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $546 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.