508 Navajo Dr · Conroe, TX 77316

$234,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2020 0.36 ac lot Est $279k · 16% under $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

So many possibilities with this beautiful pice of property. Home was being renovated not finished it's a shell. However it has New siding, roof, windows, doors, slab, framing, septic tank, back decking and some plumbing. Must come out and see home is near the huge conroe lake. However you have an other lake in your back yard beautiful morning views. Room dimensions are not accurate please do your own measurements.

Key facts

• Private stocked lake
• Waterfront lot
• Boat ramp

Tags

• WATERFRONT LOT
• PRIVATE STOCKED LAKE
• BOAT RAMP
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE CONROE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Community: Lake Conroe Forest; Annual association fee; Association amenities include boat ramp, dry dock, dog park, lake/pond access, picnic area, playground, park

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2020; Has view
• Construction: Cement siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Views; Waterfront (lake front)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, 15 x 12); Bedroom (First floor, 13 x 12)
• Flooring: Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas); Central air (Electric)
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Instant hot water; Tankless water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,809 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Quiet Wind Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,654 (-1%)	1mo	$258,000	$156	77
537 Mohawk Bnd	0.12mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (+15%)	5mo	$300,000	$156	58
109 Moonspinner	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,579 (-6%)	6mo	$225,000	$142	57
132 Golfview Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+7%)	4mo	$299,000	$167	56
907 Columbia River Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,784 (+7%)	1mo	$383,000	$215	56
89 Dawns Edge Dr	0.61mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,609 (-4%)	3mo	$270,000	$168	56
1007 W Cedar River Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (-5%)	0mo	$275,000	$174	51
1608 Mohawk Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+13%)	2mo	$500,000	$264	48
101 Fairway View Ct	0.55mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,905 (+14%)	1mo	$379,500	$199	43
16774 Meadowcroft	0.65mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,423 (-15%)	2mo	$209,900	$148	34
1006 Franconia Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,423 (-15%)	4mo	$225,000	$158	34
16770 Meadowcroft St	0.65mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,423 (-15%)	6mo	$214,900	$151	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-48,924
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-69,108
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,954/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $218,246

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	0.68mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.82mi
62 April Point Dr S Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.5	2153	$1,850	$0.86	24d	1	0.87mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.89mi
16984 W Juneau Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1530	$2,900	$1.90	44d	1	0.90mi
135 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1624	$1,900	$1.17	44d	1	0.96mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	20d	1	0.98mi
116 Lake View Cir Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	1751	$2,250	$1.28	44d	1	0.98mi
130 April Point Dr N Montgomery, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,250	$1.34	44d	1	1.00mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.11mi
15310 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,720	$1.22	2d	1	1.34mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	24d	1	1.39mi
35 Lakeview Vlg Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	2100	$3,000	$1.43	18d	1	1.39mi
613 Craven St Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1716	$1,610	$0.94	44d	1	1.43mi
15231 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1922	$1,760	$0.92	21d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $234,990
3. 2026-03-19
   listed $239,990 Active
4. 2026-02-25
   historical $1,400
5. 2026-02-25
   historical
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $1,400
7. 2026-02-05
   listed $249,990 Active
8. 2025-03-07
   historical $1,450
9. 2025-02-11
   listed $1,450
10. 2021-11-15
    soldstatus
11. 2021-11-12
    soldstatus Sold 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    So many possibilities with this beautiful pice of property. Home was being renovated not finished it's a shell. However it has New siding, roof, windows, doors, slab, framing, septic tank, back decking and some plumbing. Must come out and see home is near the huge conroe lake. However you have an other lake in your back yard beautiful morning views. Room dimensions are not accurate please do your own measurements.

12. 2021-11-05
    status Pending 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    So many possibilities with this beautiful pice of property. Home was being renovated not finished it's a shell. However it has New siding, roof, windows, doors, slab, framing, septic tank, back decking and some plumbing. Must come out and see home is near the huge conroe lake. However you have an other lake in your back yard beautiful morning views. Room dimensions are not accurate please do your own measurements.

13. 2021-10-29
    status Option Pending 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    So many possibilities with this beautiful pice of property. Home was being renovated not finished it's a shell. However it has New siding, roof, windows, doors, slab, framing, septic tank, back decking and some plumbing. Must come out and see home is near the huge conroe lake. However you have an other lake in your back yard beautiful morning views. Room dimensions are not accurate please do your own measurements.

14. 2021-10-06
    listed $125,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    So many possibilities with this beautiful pice of property. Home was being renovated not finished it's a shell. However it has New siding, roof, windows, doors, slab, framing, septic tank, back decking and some plumbing. Must come out and see home is near the huge conroe lake. However you have an other lake in your back yard beautiful morning views. Room dimensions are not accurate please do your own measurements.

15. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus
16. 1995-12-06
    soldstatus
17. 1994-11-18
    soldstatus
18. 1988-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,954 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,346/yr (+$112/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$2,954
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,252
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+88.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Rental Removed $1,400 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed for Rent $1,400 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $249,990 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Rental Removed $1,450 HARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed for Rent $1,450 HARMLS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-11-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-06 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-11-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,954 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.