473 Church Dr · Lenoir City, TN 37771

$259,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1949 0.73 ac lot Est $514k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique charmer with an incredible outdoor experience awaits for you. Enjoy the blessings of multiple covered porches that accent this beautiful Lenoir City landmark. Main level living offers a primary bedroom with a full ensuite and wonderful clawfoot tub. A fully finished living area downstairs makes for an additional living space with a living room, bedroom, office and full bathroom. Outside offers a covered back porch and an In-Ground pool!

Key facts

• Huge lot
• 0.73 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• HUGE LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 4-car carport
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Not attached to other properties; Total building area ~2,508 (source: tax records)
• Construction: Stone, vinyl siding and frame construction
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Storage structure; Other view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Finished basement; Basement plumbed; Fireplace (other type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $455 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (0.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.9% in Lenoir City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#221 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, amenities F.
• Lenoir City (suburban): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #98 of 139 in TN (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 608 units permitted in Loudon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,577/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 458% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Loudon County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,662 (0.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.54%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $514,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1340 Hillside Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,556 (+2%)	1mo	$530,000	$207	78
210 English Oak Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,544 (+1%)	4mo	$510,000	$200	75
341 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 95)	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	2mo	$469,900	$200	62
328 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 121)	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	3mo	$474,990	$203	61
288 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 119)	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	61
161 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 110)	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	1mo	$470,900	$201	59
492 Glenshire Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,400 (-4%)	3mo	$505,000	$210	58
125 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 113)	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,344 (-6%)	3mo	$487,834	$208	58
185 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 108)	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,344 (-6%)	1mo	$469,900	$200	58
245 Sugar Maple Trail (lot 103)	0.61mi	4/3.5	2,344 (-6%)	2mo	$479,900	$205	56
293 Sugar Maple Trl	0.59mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,339 (-7%)	3mo	$510,000	$218	52
159 Silver Maple St	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,847 (+14%)	4mo	$665,000	$234	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-13,055
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $25,613
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37771

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,368/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,000

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
251 Edinburgh Dr Lenoir City, TN	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,450	$1.28	19d	1	0.80mi
116 Kaley Ln Lenoir City, TN	4.0	2.5	2072	$2,500	$1.21	2d	1	0.82mi
112 Kaley Ln Lenoir City, TN	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,800	$1.00	43d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $259,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 179-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $275,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,839 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 34.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$1,368
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,474
• − Management: −$2,474
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $1,267
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $5,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir City
• NCES district ID: 4702400
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,181
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8683
• State rank: #98 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lenoir City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #221
• US rank: #16577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lenoir City, TN
• County: Loudon County · 54,472 people
• City population: 32,688
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 18,042
• Household income: $66,938
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 458.0

Population outlook (Loudon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,364 people
• By 2030: 57,414 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 61,216 · +10.6%
• By 2050: 64,846 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 75,829 · +37.0%
• By 2100: 85,693 · +54.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Loudon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.0) · D 23.0% · R 76.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -44.0pp · 2024: -53.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.0 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+54.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+44.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.66%
• Current HPI: 350.3849
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Knoxville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+400.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $275,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $302,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Sold (MLS) $302,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2022-01-14 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2022-01-11 Price Changed $299,500 Knoxville MLS
• 2021-12-22 Listed $325,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2007-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-02 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-09-30 Listed $173,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2006-06-29 Listed $54,900 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,368 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.