6433 June Bug Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2023 6,969 sqft lot Est $264k · 6% over $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Settle into the calm of Milton living without sacrificing everyday convenience in this move-in-ready single-family home on June Bug Drive. With 1,511 sqft and a low-maintenance footprint, it is designed for buyers who want more breathing room, more privacy, and more time for what matters, whether that means hosting, recharging, or simply enjoying a home that feels easy to live in. Inside, the 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout offers a comfortable balance of togetherness and flexibility. Natural light fills the main living areas, creating a bright, welcoming flow that works just as well for quiet mornings as it does for casual evenings with friends. Each bedroom is generously sized, giving you real o

Key facts

• Privacy
• Natural light
• Unobstructed views

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• LOW MAINTENANCE FOOTPRINT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• PRIVACY
• UNOBSTRUCTED VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is not new construction; Road responsibility is county maintained
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $400

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper electrical wiring; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; Insulation and insulated walls; Homestead status
• Construction: Frame construction; Built as a one-level dwelling
• Exterior features: Fire pit; Privacy fencing in the backyard; Located on a cul-de-sac; Paved, county-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14.1' x 12.0'); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.0' x 12.1'); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.0' x 12.0')
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans for additional cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet; Recessed lighting; Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-163 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,517 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $264,425
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6516 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	82
6496 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	2mo	$281,900	$180	82
6432 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	2mo	$277,900	$177	81
6468 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+4%)	3mo	$274,900	$175	81
6513 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	0mo	$259,900	$181	76
6501 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	0mo	$250,000	$174	76
6465 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	75
6485 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	75
6505 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	2mo	$249,900	$174	75
6477 Firefly Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-5%)	3mo	$249,900	$174	74
4081 Audiss Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+4%)	1mo	$230,000	$146	64
6604 Woodbrook Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,414 (-6%)	3mo	$275,000	$194	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,403
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-45,526
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,065 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,183/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,271

Max offer price $250,240

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-5	-5% $-84	+0% $-163	+5% $-242	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-326	-5% $-244	+0% $-163	+5% $-81	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-92	base $-163	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	21d	1	0.30mi
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	24d	1	0.42mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	24d	1	0.68mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	24d	1	0.72mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $279,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,183 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,316 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$133/yr (+$11/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,183
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,983
• − Management: −$1,983
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$6,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,656
• After-tax cash flow: $-297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-63.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $279,000 PARMLS
• 2022-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $756,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+67.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,183 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.