8401 S Kolb Rd #168 · Tucson, AZ 85756

$50,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bed/ 2 bath home is in the gated community of Trails West Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 1,056 sq ft residence features a bright great room, skylights, a split bedroom layout, and a spacious kitchen with an island, pantry cabinet, electric range, and refrigerator. The primary suite includes a double vanity, walk-in shower and walk-in closet, while the second bath offers a shower/tub combo. Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered patio, two-car carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, clubhouse, rec center, shuffleboard, exercise facilities, and secure gated entry.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Spacious kitchen
• Split bedroom layout

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• BRIGHT GREAT ROOM
• SKYLIGHTS
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.7% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $45,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.21%
• DSCR: 4.88
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.87×
• Total profit: $54,196
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 88.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.62×
• Total profit: $120,658
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85756

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $1,017

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7500 E Voyager Rd Unit 138 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,599	$1.07	19d	1	0.26mi
8042 S Dolphin Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	10d	1	1.33mi
6794 E Sea Horse Rd Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,800	$1.25	43d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $50,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $60,000 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    This 2 bed/ 2 bath home is in the gated community of Trails West Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 1,056 sq ft residence features a bright great room, skylights, a split bedroom layout, and a spacious kitchen with an island, pantry cabinet, electric range, and refrigerator. The primary suite includes a double vanity, walk-in shower and walk-in closet, while the second bath offers a shower/tub combo. Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered patio, two-car carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, clubhouse, rec center, shuffleboard, exercise facilities, and secure gated entry.

17. 2026-02-18
    listed $72,500 Active 718-char remark

    Show marketing remark (718 chars)

    This 2 bed/ 2 bath home is in the gated community of Trails West Resort community, offering low maintenance living and access to fantastic amenities. This is a Vibrant active adult community. This 1,056 sq ft residence features a bright great room, skylights, a split bedroom layout, and a spacious kitchen with an island, pantry cabinet, electric range, and refrigerator. The primary suite includes a double vanity, walk-in shower and walk-in closet, while the second bath offers a shower/tub combo. Outside, find low-care landscaping, a covered patio, two-car carport, and a large storage shed. Community perks include a pool, spa, clubhouse, rec center, shuffleboard, exercise facilities, and secure gated entry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $12,136
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,913
• After-tax cash flow: $9,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Trails West Resort is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Upgraded lighting can improve the home's ambiance and increase its appeal to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Upgraded lighting can improve the home's ambiance and increase its appeal to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,700
• Household income: $72,490
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 29% Two or more races 23% Black 7% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 39% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.28%
• Current HPI: 304.0243
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-17.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $60,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-18 Listed $72,500 MLSSAZ