1237 NE Oneal Dr NE · Crescent, GA 31331

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 133 Days on market

Built 1988 0.27 ac lot Est $192k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to tranquility in the peaceful Sapelo Gardens community with this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath retreat. This rare opportunity includes 1/4 acre of meticulously maintained land. This residence has been lovingly cared for Step inside to find newer flooring and fresh paint throughout, adding a modern touch to the inviting interior. The spacious living room provides the perfect setting for relaxing evenings or entertaining guests. The primary bedroom serves as a comfortable haven with an ensuite bathroom, while the second bedroom includes its own half bath, offering added convenience and privacy for family or visitors. Surrounded by majestic oak trees and a serene coastal atmosphere, Sapelo Gardens is a hidden gem. Residents enjoy the benefits of a voluntary HOA, which includes access to the community dock and dock house—ideal for boating, fishing, or simply soaking in the peaceful waterfront surroundings. Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment with room to grow, this unique property offers comfort, versatility, and natural beauty.

Key facts

• Half bath
• Newer flooring
• Fresh paint

Tags

• 1/4 ACRE LAND
• NEWER FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• HALF BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-564/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.0% in Crescent — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mcintosh County (town): math 23% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #118 of 174 in GA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 293 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in McIntosh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• McIntosh County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,023 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1383 Marsh Dr NE	0.27mi	2/1.0	840 (-14%)	22mo	$165,000	$196	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $67,216
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $200,198
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31331

• Active inventory: 293
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $714/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $-47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,000

Max offer price $120,700

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-10	+0% $-47	+5% $-83	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-121	-5% $-84	+0% $-47	+5% $-10	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $18	-0.5pp $-14	base $-47	+0.5pp $-80	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-02-07
    listed $129,000 Active 1111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1111 chars)

    Escape to tranquility in the peaceful Sapelo Gardens community with this charming 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath retreat. This rare opportunity includes 1/4 acre of meticulously maintained land. This residence has been lovingly cared for Step inside to find newer flooring and fresh paint throughout, adding a modern touch to the inviting interior. The spacious living room provides the perfect setting for relaxing evenings or entertaining guests. The primary bedroom serves as a comfortable haven with an ensuite bathroom, while the second bedroom includes its own half bath, offering added convenience and privacy for family or visitors. Surrounded by majestic oak trees and a serene coastal atmosphere, Sapelo Gardens is a hidden gem. Residents enjoy the benefits of a voluntary HOA, which includes access to the community dock and dock house—ideal for boating, fishing, or simply soaking in the peaceful waterfront surroundings. Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence, a weekend getaway, or an investment with room to grow, this unique property offers comfort, versatility, and natural beauty.

20. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $714 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 66.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$714
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$903
• − Management: −$903
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$2,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$687
• After-tax cash flow: $123/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcintosh County
• NCES district ID: 1303600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,742
• Composite: 22.08/100
• National rank: #8188
• State rank: #118 of 174 in GA

Livability — Crescent

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crescent, GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,997

Population outlook (McIntosh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,922 people
• By 2030: 12,156 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 10,332 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -34.0%
• By 2075: 5,506 · -57.4%
• By 2100: 3,635 · -71.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 28% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% French 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McIntosh

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.6) · D 35.5% · R 64.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -28.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.6 2020: R+21.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 85.75%
• Current HPI: 329.1351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+12.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $129,000 GIAR
• 2024-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $714 · +319.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.